Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 34

Date: 20 November 2025, Thursday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
United-arab-emirates	Dubai Sports 1
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz


	Bahia		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	1.49	4.2	6	Watch
	1.55	4.25	5.4
	1.48	4.71	6.11
	1.60	4.20	5.08	Watch
	1.55	4.42	5.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.6)	4.36 ↑ (4.2)	5.68 ↑ (5.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
61.6%

Draw
21.7%

Fortaleza
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

22.5%

18.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

21.9%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.1%	14.8%	11.1%

Bahia - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 20 - 74.1%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 3 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 57.6% – 90.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Bahia (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.75 - Fortaleza (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bahia will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 2. Gilberto 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 19. Caio Alexandre 14. Erick 6. Jean Lucas 16. Erick Pulga 12. Willian Jose (C) 7. Ademir	12. Brenno (G) 14. Mancuso E. 34. Gazal 3. Avila G. 6. Bruno Pacheco (C) 30. Pierre 5. Pereira M. 7. Pochettino T. 26. Breno Lopes 27. Bareiro A. 80. Herrera J.
Substitutes
13. Arias S. 8. Cauly 10. Everton Ribeiro 25. Iago Borduchi 34. Joao Paulo (G) 4. Kanu 37. Kayky 44. Luiz Gustavo 26. Nicolas Acevedo 5. Rezende 11. Rodrigo 77. Tiago	19. Allanzinho 4. Benevenuto 18. Deyverson 16. Diogo Barbosa 23. Leite H. (G) 91. Lucas Crispim 9. Lucero J. 20. Matheus Rossetto 96. Moises 70. Pablo Roberto 2. Tinga 22. Yago Pikachu
Coaches
Mucke R.	Palermo M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
30', 0 - 1, Bareiro A. ⚽, Herrera J. (A),
32', Bareiro A. 🟨,
36', 0 - 2, Herrera J. ⚽, Pochettino T. (A),
45+3', Ademir 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Erick ↓, Tiago ↑,
46', Caio Alexandre ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
60', David Duarte ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Willian Jose (Pen),
71', Bareiro A. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
71', Pereira M. ↓, Pablo Roberto ↑,
71', Pochettino T. ↓, Allanzinho ↑,
75', 1 - 3, Deyverson ⚽,
77', Diogo Barbosa 🟨,
78', Breno Lopes ↓, Matheus Rossetto ↑,
78', Gilberto ↓, Cauly ↑,
84', Brenno 🟨,
86', Herrera J. ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
88', 2 - 3, Tiago ⚽, Ademir (A),
90+2', Ademir ↓, Kayky ↑,
90+3', Pierre 🟨,
90+5', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Bahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bahia is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Bahia: Gabriel Xavier (Calf Injury) Gilberto (Thigh Injury) Kayky (Thigh Injury) Michel Araujo (Yellow Cards) Ruan Pablo (International duty) Sanabria M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Benevenuto (Hamstring Injury) Joao Ricardo (Shoulder Injury) Lucas Sasha (Yellow Cards) Marinho (Ankle Injury) Rodrigo (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Weverson (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 8 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 28:25. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:9. (average 1.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
08.11.25	Internacional RS - Bahia	2:2 ✺
05.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Bahia	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Bahia - Red Bull Bragantino	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	São Paulo - Bahia	2:0 ✺
22.10.25	Bahia - Internacional RS	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TLWLW
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
12.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Fortaleza	3:3 ✺
09.11.25	Fortaleza - Grêmio	2:2 ✺
06.11.25	Ceará - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Santos - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Fortaleza - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 TTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.07.25	Fortaleza - Bahia	1:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
09.07.25	Bahia - Fortaleza	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
21.09.24	Fortaleza - Bahia	4:1
13.06.24	Bahia - Fortaleza	1:0
21.10.23	Bahia - Fortaleza	2:0
03.06.23	Fortaleza - Bahia	0:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
14.02.23	Bahia - Fortaleza	0:3

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