Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 25

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Referee: Zanovelli P. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Brazil	SporTV
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Laola1
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Bahia		Internacional RS

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.83	3.70	4.20
	1.88	3.3	4.1	Watch
	1.85	3.67	4.73
	1.9	3.73	3.95	Watch
	1.82	3.6	4.6
	1.85	3.66	4.38	Watch
	1.79	3.65	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.02)	3.61 ↑ (3.45)	4.36 ↑ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
51.8%

Draw
26.3%

Internacional RS
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

27.5%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

27%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Internacional RS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Internacional RS than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Bahia - Internacional RS Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - over (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bahia will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 31. Gomez R. 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 14. Erick 5. Nicolas Acevedo (C) 11. Rodrigo 99. Olivera C. 9. Veliz A. 16. Erick Pulga	23. Matheus Cunha (G) 35. Aguirre B. 4. Torres F. 3. Maripan G. 6. Matheus Bahia 8. Bruno Henrique 16. Ronaldo 29. Thiago Maia 28. Vitinho 10. Alan Patrick (C) 26. Bernabei A.
Substitutes
7. Ademir 8. Caio Alexandre 27. Everaldo 17. Herrera G. (G) 4. Kanu 57. Kaue Junior 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 3. Moreno M. 77. Ruan Pablo 12. Willian Jose 66. Ze Guilherme	9. Alerrandro 12. Anthoni (G) 30. Calebe 7. Carbonero J. 53. de Morais Francisco L. F. 17. Eliasson N. 44. Joao Victor 18. Juninho 46. Pedro Kaua 19. Sanabria A. 5. Villagra R. 52. Vinicius G.
Coaches
Mucke R.	Pezzolano P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Alan Patrick ⚽, Thiago Maia (A),
19', Pezzolano P. 🟨,
23', 1 - 1, Erick Pulga ⚽, Nicolas Acevedo (A),
39', Bernabei A. 🟨,
39', Olivera C. 🟨,
42', 2 - 1, Erick Pulga ⚽, Veliz A. (A),
45+4', 3 - 1, Erick ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 3 - 2, Vitinho ⚽, Alan Patrick (A),
54', Maripan G. 🟨,
56', Olivera C. ↓, Ademir ↑,
56', Erick ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
64', Bernabei A. ↓, Sanabria A. ↑,
64', Thiago Maia ↓, Calebe ↑,
66', Gomez R. 🟨,
72', Michel Araujo 🟨,
76', Gomez R. ↓, Marcos Victor ↑,
76', Alan Patrick ↓, Carbonero J. ↑,
76', Matheus Bahia ↓, Juninho ↑,
84', Erick Pulga ↓, Ruan Pablo ↑,
84', Rodrigo ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
87', Vitinho ↓, Eliasson N. ↑,
90+1', David Duarte 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Internacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bahia is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 18:29. (average 0.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 0.9:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
17	Internacional	29	7	10	12	32:37	-5	31

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 47.01%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.26	Vitória Salvador - Bahia	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Chapecoense - Bahia	3:3 ✺
09.08.26	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
29.07.26	Fluminense - Bahia	0:0 ✺
26.07.26	Bahia - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTTTT
- Internacional RS
Copa do Brasil
27.08.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.08.26	Internacional RS - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
17.08.26	Internacional RS - Remo	1:1 ✺
09.08.26	Palmeiras - Internacional RS	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.26	Corinthians - Internacional RS	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
15.03.26	Internacional RS - Bahia	0:1
08.11.25	Internacional RS - Bahia	2:2
22.10.25	Bahia - Internacional RS	1:0
Copa Libertadores
28.05.25	Internacional RS - Bahia	2:1
03.04.25	Bahia - Internacional RS	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
27.07.24	Bahia - Internacional RS	1:1
13.04.24	Internacional RS - Bahia	2:1

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