Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 33

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Ferreira J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fortaleza		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.75	Watch
	1.98	3.35	3.7
	2.04	3.47	3.96
	2.07	3.47	3.48	Watch
	2.08	3.44	3.71	Watch
	2.12	3.3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.11)	3.41 ↑ (3.31)	3.68 ↑ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
46.3%

Draw
27.9%

Grêmio
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

28.5%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

29.3%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

Fortaleza - Grêmio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Users Predictions: Fortaleza will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Brenno (G) 14. Mancuso E. 33. Britez E. (C) 3. Avila G. 6. Bruno Pacheco 30. Pierre 88. Lucas Sasha 91. Lucas Crispim 26. Breno Lopes 7. Pochettino T. 27. Bareiro A.	1. Tiago Volpi (G) 2. Joao Lucas 19. Noriega E. 4. Walter Kannemann (C) 23. Marlon 29. Arthur Melo 6. Cuellar G. 47. Alysson 8. Edenilson 9. Amuzu F. 95. Carlos Vinicius
Substitutes
18. Deyverson 34. Gazal 80. Herrera J. 13. Kuscevic B. 23. Leite H. (G) 9. Lucero J. 20. Matheus Rossetto 96. Moises 5. Pereira M. 2. Tinga 36. Weverson 22. Yago Pikachu	77. Andre Henrique 16. Aravena A. 15. Camilo Reijers 10. Cristaldo F. 17. Dodi 30. Enzo 53. Gustavo Martins 31. Jorge (G) 25. Lucas Esteves 11. Monsalve M. 44. Viery 3. Wagner Leonardo
Coaches
Palermo M.	Mano Menezes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, Bareiro A. ⚽, Pochettino T. (A),
9', Britez E. 🟨,
14', 1 - 1, Carlos Vinicius ⚽,
32', 1 - 2, Marlon ⚽, Carlos Vinicius (A),
44', Noriega E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lucas Sasha ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
46', Pochettino T. ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
46', Lucas Crispim ↓, Moises ↑,
59', Cuellar G. 🟨,
62', Carlos Vinicius ↓, Andre Henrique ↑,
62', Alysson ↓, Cristaldo F. ↑,
62', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,
64', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
65', 2 - 2, Pereira M. ⚽,
68', Cuellar G. ↓, Dodi ↑,
71', Edenilson 🟨,
79', Amuzu F. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
79', Edenilson ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
82', Pierre ↓, Matheus Rossetto ↑,
83', Matheus Rossetto 🟨,
89', Breno Lopes ↓, Deyverson ↑,
90+3', Bareiro A. 🟨,
90+10', Pereira M. 🟥,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fortaleza is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Allanzinho (Inactive) Benevenuto (Hamstring Injury) Joao Ricardo (Shoulder Injury) Rodrigo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Fabian Balbuena (Ankle Injury) Joao Pedro (Muscle Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury) Willian (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bareiro A. (Injury) Marinho (Ankle Injury) Moises (Injury) Weverson (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Marcos Rocha (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 0.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1:0.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 44.66%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Grêmio - the odds 3.51 are the expected chance of winning is 26.86%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
06.11.25	Ceará - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Santos - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Fortaleza - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Cruzeiro - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
15.10.25	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 TTWLL
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
05.11.25	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Corinthians - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Grêmio - Juventude	3:1 ✺
19.10.25	Bahia - Grêmio	4:0 ✺
16.10.25	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
29.07.25	Grêmio - Fortaleza	2:1
04.10.24	Grêmio - Fortaleza	3:1
19.06.24	Fortaleza - Grêmio	1:0
30.09.23	Fortaleza - Grêmio	1:1
14.05.23	Grêmio - Fortaleza	0:0
13.10.21	Fortaleza - Grêmio	1:0
27.06.21	Grêmio - Fortaleza	0:0

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