Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 30

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Mexico	Fanatiz
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Spain	Movistar Plus+
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fortaleza		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.6	1.7	Watch
	4.95	3.55	1.7
	5.5	3.82	1.71
	4.98	3.65	1.71	Watch
	5.19	3.7	1.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.17 ↑ (5)	3.66 ↑ (3.6)	1.71 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
18.4%

Draw
26%

Flamengo
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.8%

26.1%

55.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18%

24.9%

57.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	9.1%	90.9%

Fortaleza - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: Flamengo will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Flamengo will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Brenno (G) 14. Mancuso E. 33. Britez E. (C) 3. Avila G. 6. Bruno Pacheco 30. Pierre 88. Lucas Sasha 7. Pochettino T. 80. Herrera J. 27. Bareiro A. 26. Breno Lopes	1. Rossi A. (G) 22. Emerson Royal 13. Danilo 4. Leo Pereira 6. Ayrton Lucas 21. Jorginho 8. Niguez S. 10. de Arrascaeta G. 50. Plata G. 27. Bruno Henrique (C) 16. Samuel Lino
Substitutes
18. Deyverson 16. Diogo Barbosa 34. Gazal 10. Guzman Y. 99. Kayke 23. Leite H. (G) 38. Lucca Prior 20. Matheus Rossetto 96. Moises 29. Rodrigo 2. Tinga 22. Yago Pikachu	29. Allan 81. Douglas Telles 52. Evertton Araujo 57. Iago Teodoro 61. Joao Victor 23. Juninho 7. Luiz Araujo 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 30. Michael 2. Varela G. 17. Vina M. 64. Wallace Yan
Coaches
Palermo M.	Filipe Luis

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Breno Lopes ⚽, Herrera J. (A),
14', Breno Lopes 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Leo Pereira 🟨,
54', Bruno Henrique ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
62', Bareiro A. ↓, Moises ↑,
65', Samuel Lino ↓, Michael ↑,
65', Plata G. ↓, Wallace Yan ↑,
71', Pierre ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
71', Herrera J. ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
78', Pochettino T. ↓, Matheus Rossetto ↑,
78', Breno Lopes ↓, Kayke ↑,
87', Jorginho ↓, Juninho ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1.

Recent performances by Fortaleza have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Flamengo is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Flamengo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Flamengo is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Allanzinho (Inactive) Benevenuto (Hamstring Injury) Joao Ricardo (Shoulder Injury) Lucero J. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Flamengo: Carrascal J. (Yellow Cards) Everton (Injury) Pulgar E. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Lucas Crispim (Muscle Injury) Pereira M. (Inactive) Weverson (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 14:26. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.9:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Flamengo - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 55.18%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
18.10.25	Cruzeiro - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
15.10.25	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Juventude - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
02.10.25	Fortaleza - São Paulo	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLWLW
- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
22.10.25	Flamengo - Racing	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.10.25	Flamengo - Palmeiras	3:2 ✺
15.10.25	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	0:3 ✺
05.10.25	Bahia - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
02.10.25	Flamengo - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.06.25	Flamengo - Fortaleza	5:0
26.11.24	Fortaleza - Flamengo	0:0
11.07.24	Flamengo - Fortaleza	1:2
05.11.23	Fortaleza - Flamengo	0:2
01.07.23	Flamengo - Fortaleza	2:0
28.09.22	Fortaleza - Flamengo	3:2
05.06.22	Flamengo - Fortaleza	1:2

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