Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 4 July 2026, Saturday


	Bahia		Montevideo City Torque

	1	X	2
	1.60	3.75	4.40
	1.62	3.95	4.65
	1.6	3.89	4.46
	1.98	2.66	5.03	Watch
	1.57	3.85	4.3
	1.64	3.9	4.95	Watch
	1.6	3.85	4.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.62)	3.69 ↓ (3.8)	4.62 ↓ (4.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
55.3%

Draw
24.8%

Montevideo City Torque
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

24.2%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.3%

24.5%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Montevideo City Torque has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montevideo City Torque than the current prediction. (-1%)

Bahia - Montevideo City Torque Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 8. Caio Alexandre 33. David Duarte (C) 14. Erick 16. Erick Pulga 6. Jean Lucas 44. Marcos Victor 21. Ramos S. 23. Sanabria M. 12. Willian Jose 66. Ze Guilherme	1. Torgnascioli F. (G) 17. Aguero E. 7. Andrade L. 32. Caceres S. 24. Kagelmacher G. (C) 10. Obregon E. 5. Pizzichillo F. 9. Rodriguez S. 8. Siles P. 3. Silva K. 26. Silvera F.
Substitutes
7. Ademir 90. Caio Suassuna 27. Everaldo 83. Fred Lippert 31. Gomez R. 4. Kanu 57. Kaue Junior 43. Luiz Gustavo 15. Michel Araujo 91. Neres dos Santos I. J. C. (G) 5. Nicolas Acevedo 11. Rodrigo 77. Ruan Pablo 67. Wendel Passos	12. Aguiar M. (G) 15. Busquets E. 11. Da Silva N. 23. Dure L. 19. Guzman D. 18. Lecchini R. 2. Lopez J. 35. Melian I. 20. Montes G. 31. Munoz A. 21. Perez N. 30. Quintana J. 16. Rodriguez F. 13. Rodriguez G. (G) 27. Taran J. 4. Wurth V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Andrade L. ⚽,
36', 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Willian Jose ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Ze Guilherme ↓, Gomez R. ↑,
46', Willian Jose ↓, Fred Lippert ↑,
46', Sanabria M. ↓, Kanu ↑,
46', Ramos S. ↓, Luiz Gustavo ↑,
46', Marcos Victor ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
46', Jean Lucas ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
46', Erick Pulga ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
46', Erick ↓, Ademir ↑,
46', David Duarte ↓, Ruan Pablo ↑,
46', Caio Alexandre ↓, Everaldo ↑,
51', 2 - 1, Rodrigo ⚽,
57', 3 - 1, Everaldo ⚽,
60', 🟨,
70', 🟨,
79', 🟨,
86', Ademir ↓, Kaue Junior ↑,
86', Everaldo ↓, Caio Suassuna ↑,
86', 🟨,
90+2', 4 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Bahia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Montevideo City is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Bahia is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 1.5:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Bahia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
30.05.26	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	2:1 ✺
25.05.26	Coritiba - Bahia	3:2 ✺
17.05.26	Bahia - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Remo - Bahia	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.05.26	Bahia - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 WLTLL
- Montevideo City Torque
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.06.26	Montevideo City Torque - Deportivo Maldonado	2:4 ✺
31.05.26	Albion Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
26.05.26	Grêmio - Montevideo City Torque	2:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.05.26	Progreso - Montevideo City Torque	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
19.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Deportivo Riestra	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
26.05.21	Bahia - Montevideo City Torque	2:4
21.04.21	Montevideo City Torque - Bahia	1:1

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