Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 17

Date: 25 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Couto Pereira (Curitiba)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Usa	Fanatiz


	Coritiba		Bahia

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.25	2.7	Watch
	2.6	3.4	2.65
	2.52	3.2	2.72	Watch
	2.64	3.31	2.92
	2.67	3.27	2.72	Watch
	2.5	3	2.75
	2.61	3.24	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↓ (2.66)	3.24 ↓ (3.31)	2.76 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Coritiba
36.6%

Draw
29.2%

Bahia
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

28.7%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

28.9%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Coritiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Coritiba than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	30%	40%

Coritiba - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Coritiba will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Bahia will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pedro Rangel (G) 44. Joao Pedro Chermont 23. Tiago Coser 55. Jacy 26. Bruno Melo 21. Thiago Santos 19. Gomez S. (C) 7. Lavega J. 10. Josue 77. Breno Lopes 32. Pedro Rocha	22. Leo Vieira (G) 5. Nicolas Acevedo 33. David Duarte 4. Kanu 31. Gomez R. 25. Iago Borduchi 16. Erick Pulga 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 6. Jean Lucas 23. Sanabria M. 12. Willian Jose
Substitutes
33. Alves D. 28. Fabinho 6. Felipe Jonatan 88. Fernando Sobral 39. Gustavo 13. Keiller (G) 86. Lucas Taverna 78. Renato Marques 4. Rodrigo Moledo 36. Vini Paulista 8. Wallisson 29. Willian Oliveira	7. Ademir 8. Caio Alexandre 63. David Martins 27. Everaldo 3. Gabriel Xavier 2. Gilberto 34. Joao Paulo (G) 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 99. Olivera C. 21. Ramos S. 66. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Fernando Seabra	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Tiago Coser (Own goal),
30', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
45+6', Leo Vieira ↓, Joao Paulo ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
56', 1 - 1, Bruno Melo ⚽, Josue (A),
60', Sanabria M. ↓, Ademir ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Lavega J. ⚽,
68', 3 - 1, Breno Lopes ⚽, Lavega J. (A),
71', Willian Jose ↓, Everaldo ↑,
71', Jean Lucas ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
71', Erick Pulga ↓, Olivera C. ↑,
76', Ademir 🟨,
78', Joao Pedro Chermont ↓, Lucas Taverna ↑,
78', Lavega J. ↓, Fabinho ↑,
78', Thiago Santos ↓, Willian Oliveira ↑,
87', Gomez S. ↓, Wallisson ↑,
90', Gomez R. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 2, Everaldo ⚽, Everton Ribeiro (A),
90+2', Josue ↓, Vini Paulista ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 0.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Coritiba: Keno (Knee Injury) Maicon (Inactive) Pedro Morisco (Shoulder Injury) Rodrigo Rodrigues (Ankle Injury) Tinga (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: Caio Alexandre (Hamstring Injury) Erick (Yellow Cards) Rodrigo (Yellow Cards) Ronaldo Strada (Shoulder Injury) Ruan Pablo (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Coritiba: Thiago Santos (Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Luciano Juba (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Coritiba won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Coritiba won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.7:1.8).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Bahia: 0.33% Coritiba: 0.24%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37:47	-10	38

Last Results with these Odds

Bahia - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 35.58%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Coritiba
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Santos - Coritiba	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Coritiba - Santos	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.05.26	Coritiba - Internacional RS	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Coritiba	4:1 ✺
26.04.26	Grêmio - Coritiba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLTLL
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Bahia - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Remo - Bahia	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.05.26	Bahia - Cruzeiro	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	São Paulo - Bahia	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	Bahia - Santos	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
14.09.23	Coritiba - Bahia	2:4
07.05.23	Bahia - Coritiba	3:1
16.11.20	Coritiba - Bahia	1:2
12.08.20	Bahia - Coritiba	1:0
30.09.17	Bahia - Coritiba	1:1
15.06.17	Coritiba - Bahia	0:0
07.12.14	Coritiba - Bahia	3:2

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