Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio - Round 2

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo)

Referee: Silveira P. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Progreso		Montevideo City Torque

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.3	3.2	2.05
	3.35	3.15	2.08
	3.56	3.27	2.2
	3.53	3.08	2.19	Watch
	3.4	3.1	2.1
	3.43	3.2	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↓ (3.69)	3.19 ↑ (3.1)	2.12 ↑ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progreso
27.2%

Draw
29.1%

Montevideo City Torque
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

30.1%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.1%

29.8%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Montevideo City Torque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montevideo City Torque than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Progreso - Montevideo City Torque Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Montevideo City will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Requena A. (G) 15. Martin M. 13. Carroso H. 27. Silva G. 40. Cougo A. 24. Viera S. 8. Colombino A. (C) 5. Pinheiro A. 29. Fernandez N. 25. Dos Santos J. 11. Lopez N.	13. Rodriguez G. (G) 21. Perez N. 3. Silva K. 27. Taran J. (C) 15. Busquets E. 32. Caceres S. 8. Siles P. 19. Guzman D. 30. Quintana J. 11. Da Silva N. 18. Lecchini R.
Substitutes
30. Codagnone A. 7. Fernandez F. 3. Garcia F. 14. Kidd F. 10. Lemmo I. 1. Mehring A. (G) 93. Sanchez D. 18. Silva G. 9. Silva G. 16. Trasante G.	17. Aguero E. 12. Aguiar M. (G) 7. Andrade L. 23. Dure L. 24. Kagelmacher G. 14. Kociubinski B. 20. Montes G. 5. Pizzichillo F. 9. Rodriguez S. 2. Romero F.
Coaches
Silva T.	Mendez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Da Silva N. (Penalty Awarded),
26', Cougo A. 🟨,
34', 1 - 1, Lopez N. ⚽,
37', Silva K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Guzman D. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
51', Pinheiro A. 🟨,
62', Martin M. 🟨,
62', Quintana J. ↓, Andrade L. ↑,
70', Martin M. 🟨,
72', Cougo A. ↓, Kidd F. ↑,
72', Fernandez N. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
72', Dos Santos J. ↓, Silva G. ↑,
74', Caceres S. ↓, Kociubinski B. ↑,
77', Viera S. 🟨,
79', 1 - 2, Rodriguez S. ⚽,
84', Silva G. 🟨,
84', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
85', Viera S. ↓, Sanchez D. ↑,
88', Da Silva N. ↓, Aguero E. ↑,
88', Perez N. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
90+2', Garcia F. 🟨,
90+4', Pinheiro A. ↓, Lemmo I. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 1.

Progreso has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Montevideo City is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Progreso may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Montevideo City has had a series of home games.

Montevideo City will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:25. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Progreso won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:14. (average 0.8:2.3).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Montevideo City	9	6	1	2	19:10	9	19
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Progreso - the odds 3.69 are the expected chance of winning is 25.28%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Montevideo City Torque - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.63%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Progreso
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.05.26	Juventud de Las Piedras - Progreso	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Progreso	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Progreso - Cerro Largo	0:1 ✺
27.04.26	Defensor Sporting - Progreso	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Progreso - Montevideo Wanderers	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLLLW
- Montevideo City Torque
Copa Sudamericana
19.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Deportivo Riestra	4:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Nacional Montevideo	1:2 ✺
10.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Progreso	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Palestino	1:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Racing Montevideo - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
10.05.26	Montevideo City Torque - Progreso	2:1
01.11.25	Progreso - Montevideo City Torque	0:5
13.06.25	Montevideo City Torque - Progreso	3:1
04.05.25	Montevideo City Torque - Progreso	2:3
Uruguay Copa
29.10.23	Progreso - Montevideo City Torque	1:2 penalties
05.10.22	Montevideo City Torque - Progreso	1:2
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.12.21	Montevideo City Torque - Progreso	1:0

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