Match Info

Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Arena Fonte Nova (Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video


	Bahia		Paysandu

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.75	6.5
	1.35	4.4	7.25
	1.51	4.1	6.2
	1.52	4.1	6.64
	1.53	3.91	6.5	Watch
	1.36	4.2	9
	1.55	3.82	6.9
	1.51	4.1	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.44)	4.05 ↑ (3.94)	6.9 ↓ (8.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahia
63.2%

Draw
23.2%

Paysandu
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

23.7%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

22.9%

11.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Paysandu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Bahia - Paysandu Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Paysandu (2.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bahia (votes: 1 - 50%). Paysandu (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Marcos Felipe (G) 14. Erick 3. Gabriel Xavier 83. Fred Lippert 25. Iago Borduchi 26. Nicolas Acevedo (C) 6. Jean Lucas 11. Rodrigo 15. Michel Araujo 37. Kayky 12. Willian Jose	13. Matheus Nogueira (C) 4. Luan Freitas 28. Leandro Vilela 35. Mauricio Antonio 2. Edilson 8. Andre Lima 96. Matheus Vargas 94. Patric Calmon 16. Reverson 9. Benitez J. 21. Bryan Borges
Substitutes
19. Caio Alexandre 8. Cauly 33. David Duarte 16. Erick Pulga 10. Everton Ribeiro 2. Gilberto 46. Luciano Juba 21. Ramos S. 17. Rodriguez L. 96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 52. Ruan Pablo 77. Tiago	32. Cavalleri M. 22. Eliel 12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 10. Giovanni 34. Lucca Carvalho 30. Marcelinho 11. Nicolas 3. Quintana Y. 77. Rossi
Coaches
Mucke R.	Luizinho Lopes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Michel Araujo ⚽, Kayky (A),
16', Gabriel Xavier 🟨,
22', Edilson ↓, Nicolas ↑,
33', 2 - 0, Willian Jose ⚽, Kayky (A),
45', Leandro Vilela 🟨,
45+3', 3 - 0, Willian Jose ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ramos S. ↓, Kaua Davi ↑,
46', Benitez J. ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
46', Bryan Borges ↓, Cavalleri M. ↑,
63', Nicolas Acevedo 🟨,
66', 4 - 0, Rodrigo ⚽,
69', Michel Araujo ↓, Ruan Pablo ↑,
69', Willian Jose ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
69', Kayky ↓, Tiago ↑,
76', Matheus Vargas ↓, Eliel ↑,
80', Rodrigo ↓, Everton Ribeiro ↑,
88', Leandro Vilela ↓, Lucca Carvalho ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-0. 2nd leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Bahia is the clear favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:0. (average 2.3:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.25	Atlético Nacional - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Flamengo - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.25	Bahia - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.05.25	Bahia - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLLW
- Paysandu PA
Brazilian Serie B
18.05.25	Paysandu - Goiás	0:0 ✺
14.05.25	América Mineiro - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
11.05.25	Remo - Paysandu	1:1 penalties ✺
07.05.25	Paysandu - Remo	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.25	Volta Redonda - Paysandu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
30.04.25	Paysandu - Bahia	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.16	Paysandu - Bahia	2:1
03.06.16	Bahia - Paysandu	3:0
06.10.15	Paysandu - Bahia	0:0
Copa do Brasil
22.07.15	Bahia - Paysandu	2:0
15.07.15	Paysandu - Bahia	3:0
Brazilian Serie B
07.07.15	Bahia - Paysandu	2:0

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