Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished


	Bahir Dar Kenema		Negele Arsi Ketema

	1	X	2
	2.58	2.78	2.82
	2.58	2.76	2.99
	2.65	2.7	2.95	Watch
	2.5	2.5	2.8
	2.66	2.86	2.91	Watch
	3	2.85	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↓ (3.02)	2.74 ↓ (2.88)	2.8 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bahir Dar Kenema
34.2%

Draw
33.2%

Negele Arsi Ketema
32.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.1%

31.5%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

31.7%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bahir Dar Kenema has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Negele Arsi Ketema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Negele Arsi Ketema might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahir Dar Kenema than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Negele Arsi Ketema than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Negele Arsi Ketema could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Bahir Dar Kenema - Negele Arsi Ketema Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Negele Arsi Ketema (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 3).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Bahir Dar won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Negele Arsi Ketema	4	2	2	0	5:1	4	8
5	Bahir Dar Kenema	3	2	0	1	4:2	2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bahir Dar Kenema
Ethiopian Premier League
04.03.26	Ethiopia Bunna - Bahir Dar Kenema	2:0 ✺
27.02.26	Bahir Dar Kenema - Arba Minch	0:2 ✺
21.02.26	Hadiya Hossana - Bahir Dar Kenema	0:1 ✺
05.02.26	Bahir Dar Kenema - Ethiopia Nigd Bank	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Sidama Coffee - Bahir Dar Kenema	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLWTT
- Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopian Premier League
03.03.26	Saint George - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:0 ✺
26.02.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Ethiopia Bunna	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Arba Minch - Negele Arsi Ketema	1:1 ✺
05.02.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Mekelle 70 Enderta	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Ethiopia Nigd Bank - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
02.11.25	Negele Arsi Ketema - Bahir Dar Kenema	0:0

Bahir Dar Kenema - Negele Arsi Ketema