Match Info

I Liqa - Round 20

Date: 4 April 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Baku Sporting		Gabala

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	9.65	4.2	1.32
	9	4.1	1.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.33 ↑ (7.85)	4.15 ↑ (3.8)	1.33 ↓ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baku Sporting
9.7%

Draw
21.8%

Gabala
68.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.6%

23.9%

64.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.3%

23.3%

66.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baku Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Gabala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baku Sporting than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Baku Sporting - Gabala Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Sporting (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sporting (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', 0 - 1, Aliyev N. ⚽,
43', 0 - 2, Massoumou D. J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
79', 0 - 3, Tagiyev E. ⚽,
87', 0 - 4, Tagiyev E. ⚽,
89', 0 - 5, ⚽,

Preview

Recent matches Sporting is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gabala in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Sporting could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Gabala is indisputable favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Sporting won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0:6 (average 0:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Sporting won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baku Sporting
Azerbaijan First Division
27.03.25	Karvan - Baku Sporting	1:1 ✺
12.03.25	Baku Sporting - İmişli	2:2 ✺
06.03.25	Difai Ağsu - Baku Sporting	0:1 ✺
27.02.25	Baku Sporting - Cəbrayıl	1:0 ✺
20.02.25	Baku Sporting - Mingachevir	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TTWWL
- FK Gabala
Azerbaijan First Division
28.03.25	Gabala - Mingachevir	2:0 ✺
13.03.25	Zagatala - Gabala	1:1 ✺
07.03.25	Cəbrayıl - Gabala	2:3 ✺
28.02.25	Gabala - Karvan	2:0 ✺
19.02.25	MOIK Baku - Gabala	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
30.01.25	Gabala - Baku Sporting	0:0
Azerbaijan Cup
31.10.24	Gabala - Baku Sporting	4:0
Azerbaijan First Division
04.10.24	Baku Sporting - Gabala	0:2

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