Match Info

I Liqa - Round 19

Date: 27 March 2025, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Karvan		Baku Sporting

	1	X	2
	1.44	4.2	6	Watch
	1.42	4	6.5
	1.41	4.3	6.37
	1.44	4.2	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.85)	4.18 ↑ (3.5)	6.22 ↑ (3.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karvan
63.6%

Draw
21.8%

Baku Sporting
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

25.8%

25.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

26.6%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karvan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Karvan's performance.

Baku Sporting has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Baku Sporting might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karvan than the current prediction. (-13.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Karvan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baku Sporting than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Baku Sporting could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Karvan - Baku Sporting Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 0 - 1, Stevanovic L. ⚽,
76', 1 - 1, Morgan E. (Pen),

Preview

Recent matches Karvan is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sporting is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Sporting could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Sporting have a series of home games.

Karvan will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Karvan won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:1 (average 2.5:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Karvan won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karvan FK
Azerbaijan First Division
13.03.25	Qaradağ Lökbatan - Karvan	1:1 ✺
07.03.25	Karvan - Zagatala	3:2 ✺
28.02.25	Gabala - Karvan	2:0 ✺
19.02.25	Cəbrayıl - Karvan	1:1 ✺
13.02.25	Karvan - MOIK Baku	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TWLTW
- Baku Sporting
Azerbaijan First Division
12.03.25	Baku Sporting - İmişli	2:2 ✺
06.03.25	Difai Ağsu - Baku Sporting	0:1 ✺
27.02.25	Baku Sporting - Cəbrayıl	1:0 ✺
20.02.25	Baku Sporting - Mingachevir	0:1 ✺
14.02.25	Baku Sporting - Qaradağ Lökbatan	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
24.12.24	Baku Sporting - Karvan	0:2
26.09.24	Karvan - Baku Sporting	3:1

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