Match Info

NORTHERN IRELAND: Irish Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Ballymena Showgrounds (Ballymena)


	Ballymena United		Ards

	1	X	2
	1.36	4.5	6.25
	1.33	5	8
	1.47	4.56	5.36
	1.44	4.3	5.5
	1.28	4.95	8.6
	1.33	5	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.56)	4.72 ↑ (4.28)	6.95 ↑ (4.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ballymena United
67.3%

Draw
19.5%

Ards
13.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

21.4%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

18.7%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ballymena United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ballymena United's performance.

Ards has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ards might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ballymena United than the current prediction. (-16.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ballymena United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ards than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ards could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ballymena United - Ards Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Newell L. ⚽,
23', 0 - 2, Steele A. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
78', 1 - 2, Devine E. ⚽,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ballymena United
Northern Irish Premiership
30.12.24	Ballymena United - Glenavon	0:2 ✺
26.12.24	Coleraine - Ballymena United	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	Loughgall - Ballymena United	2:3 ✺
14.12.24	Ballymena United - Dungannon Swifts	0:1 ✺
30.11.24	Ballymena United - Carrick Rangers	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LTWLL
- Ards FC
Northern Irish Championship
31.12.24	Ards - Dundela	1:3 ✺
26.12.24	Bangor - Ards	0:0 ✺
14.12.24	Ards - Newry City	0:1 ✺
07.12.24	Ards - Ballinamallard United	0:1 ✺
30.11.24	Harland & Wolff Welders - Ards	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish League Cup
05.11.24	Ballymena United - Ards	1:0
Club Friendly
05.07.24	Ballymena United - Ards	3:0
Northern Irish League Cup
14.09.22	Ards - Ballymena United	2:4 ET
Northern Irish Premiership
26.01.19	Ballymena United - Ards	4:1
22.12.18	Ballymena United - Ards	2:0
Northern Irish League Cup
13.11.18	Ards - Ballymena United	0:1
Northern Irish Premiership
18.08.18	Ards - Ballymena United	1:2

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