Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 19

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Ballymena Showgrounds (Ballymena)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Ballymena United		Dungannon Swifts

	1	X	2
	2.72	3.25	2.38
	3.02	3.46	2.31
	2.66	3.47	2.47	Watch
	2.8	3.3	2.3
	2.88	3.35	2.36
	2.83	3.25	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.41)	3.35 ↑ (3.19)	2.36 ↓ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ballymena United
32.9%

Draw
27.7%

Dungannon Swifts
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

28.7%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

29.7%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ballymena United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ballymena United's form might have worsened.

Dungannon Swifts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Dungannon Swifts's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ballymena United than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ballymena United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dungannon Swifts than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Dungannon Swifts, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

Ballymena United - Dungannon Swifts Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Ballymena United will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Dungannon will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Breen D. (G) 31. Corbally K. 22. Edogun S. 8. Jarvis A. 3. Lafferty D. 25. Mccallion D. 35. Nolan Z. 11. O'Conchubhair D. 15. O'Donnell S. (C) 20. Thompson J. 5. Toure D.	1. Dunne D. (G) 13. Alves L. 34. Bigirimana G. (C) 14. Glenny A. 6. Kelly T. 67. McAllister S. 17. McGinty C. 26. Mitchell A. 40. Ogedi-Uzokwe J. 2. Scott S. 23. Wallace D.
Substitutes
6. Ali G. 7. Gawne A. 41. Hood J. 21. McGeouch D. . O'Neill S. (G) 17. O’Reilly J. 33. Taylor D.	10. Dillon K. 31. Glass D. (G) 8. Knowles J. 4. Maguire P. 19. Maguire T. 22. McAleese B. 20. Smith M.
Coaches
Ervin J.	McAree R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, McGinty C. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, McGinty C. (Own goal),
32', Nolan Z. ↓, McGeouch D. ↑,
42', Scott S. 🟨,
45+2', Kelly T. ↓, McAleese B. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Alves L. ↓, Maguire T. ↑,
63', Jarvis A. 🟨,
70', Bigirimana G. 🟨,
73', Mitchell A. ↓, Knowles J. ↑,
76', 1 - 2, Glenny A. ⚽,
78', O'Conchubhair D. ↓, Hood J. ↑,
84', Lafferty D. ↓, O’Reilly J. ↑,
84', Jarvis A. ↓, Taylor D. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 in the zone NIFL Premiership (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NIFL Premiership (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ballymena United won 1.

Ballymena United is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Dungannon's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Dungannon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ballymena United won 12 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 36:21. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ballymena United won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ballymena United
Northern Irish League Cup
02.12.25	Ballymena United - Larne	2:0 ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
29.11.25	Glenavon - Ballymena United	3:1 ✺
22.11.25	Ballymena United - Crusaders	2:2 ✺
08.11.25	Bangor - Ballymena United	2:3 ✺
Northern Irish League Cup
04.11.25	Ballymena United - Newington	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLTWW
- Dungannon Swifts
Northern Irish Premiership
29.11.25	Dungannon Swifts - Larne	1:2 ✺
21.11.25	Glentoran - Dungannon Swifts	0:1 ✺
08.11.25	Cliftonville - Dungannon Swifts	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Dungannon Swifts - Crusaders	2:0 ✺
25.10.25	Dungannon Swifts - Glenavon	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
27.09.25	Ballymena United - Dungannon Swifts	0:2
08.03.25	Dungannon Swifts - Ballymena United	0:3
14.12.24	Ballymena United - Dungannon Swifts	0:1
24.08.24	Dungannon Swifts - Ballymena United	1:0
27.04.24	Dungannon Swifts - Ballymena United	3:0
13.01.24	Ballymena United - Dungannon Swifts	2:4
28.10.23	Ballymena United - Dungannon Swifts	1:1

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