Match Info

NORTHERN IRELAND: NIFL Championship - Round 20

Date: 14 December 2024, Saturday


	Ards		Newry City

	1	X	2
	1.6	4.2	3.9
	1.63	4.4	4.2
	1.65	4.4	4.33	Watch
	1.62	4.33	3.8
	1.59	4.2	4.3
	1.63	4.4	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.64)	4.32 ↓ (4.33)	4.12 ↑ (3.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ards
56.6%

Draw
21.2%

Newry City
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.4%

21%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

17.5%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ards has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Newry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ards than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ards that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newry City than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newry City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ards - Newry City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
83', 0 - 1, McNickle R. (Pen),

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ards FC
Northern Irish Championship
07.12.24	Ards - Ballinamallard United	0:1 ✺
30.11.24	Harland & Wolff Welders - Ards	4:0 ✺
22.11.24	Ards - Limavady United	2:0 ✺
16.11.24	Institute FC - Ards	2:4 ✺
09.11.24	Ards - Ballyclare Comrades	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLWWL
- Newry City
Northern Irish Championship
07.12.24	Limavady United - Newry City	3:0 ✺
29.11.24	Newry City - Annagh United	0:2 ✺
22.11.24	Newry City - Dundela	0:2 ✺
17.11.24	Bangor - Newry City	3:0 ✺
08.11.24	Newry City - Armagh City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Championship
04.10.24	Newry City - Ards	1:4
12.03.22	Newry City - Ards	4:0
Northern Irish Cup
04.02.22	Newry City - Ards	1:0
Northern Irish Championship
29.10.21	Ards - Newry City	1:1
27.08.21	Newry City - Ards	2:1
Northern Irish Premiership
05.04.19	Newry City - Ards	3:0
23.02.19	Ards - Newry City	3:1

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