Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 31

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Ballymena Showgrounds (Ballymena)

Referee: Robinson J. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Ballymena United		Larne

	1	X	2
	4.55	3.65	1.68
	4.38	3.67	1.81
	4.73	3.91	1.61	Watch
	4.8	3.4	1.7
	4.48	3.61	1.76
	4	3.4	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.49 ↓ (5.57)	3.61 ↓ (4.03)	1.69 ↑ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ballymena United
20.4%

Draw
25.4%

Larne
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.5%

22.9%

60.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.9%

22.1%

62.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ballymena United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Larne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Larne might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ballymena United than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Larne than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Larne could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ballymena United - Larne Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Wade B. (G) 16. Clarke M. (C) 31. Corbally K. 18. Ebbe D. 22. Edogun S. 8. Jarvis A. 25. Mccallion D. 15. O'Donnell S. 28. Sule F. 20. Thompson J. 5. Toure D.	1. Ferguson R. (G) 26. Bent D. 23. Cosgrove T. (C) 15. Doherty R. 4. Donnelly A. 6. Gallagher C. 30. Lusty M. 22. McEneff J. 3. Ridley M. 29. Ryan A. 47. Simpson J.
Substitutes
23. Breen D. (G) 3. Lafferty D. 19. McCurry C. 24. McEleney S. 21. McGeouch D. 17. O’Reilly J. 12. Rutkowski I.	36. Graham D. (G) 14. Magee B. 7. McKendry C. 19. Nolan R. 10. O'Connor T. 9. O'Neill P. 46. Wallace L.
Coaches
Kearney O.	Rooney N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Ryan A. ⚽,
30', 0 - 2, Ryan A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Edogun S. 🟥,
53', 🟨,
57', Thompson J. ↓, Rutkowski I. ↑,
59', 🟨,
63', Lusty M. ↓, O'Neill P. ↑,
71', Bent D. ↓, O'Connor T. ↑,
71', Donnelly A. ↓, McKendry C. ↑,
71', Ryan A. ↓, Magee B. ↑,
81', 🟨,
85', 🟨,

Preview

Larne is Qualified for NIFL Premiership (Championship Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ballymena United won 1.

Recent form of Ballymena United has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Larne's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Larne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Larne is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ballymena United won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 19:30. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Ballymena United won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:18. (average 1:1.6).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Larne: 29.31% Ballymena: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Larne	6	5	1	0	12:3	9	16
8	Ballymena	9	3	3	3	13:11	2	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ballymena United
Northern Irish Premiership
24.02.26	Ballymena United - Glenavon	2:2 ✺
20.02.26	Coleraine - Ballymena United	1:0 ✺
17.02.26	Ballymena United - Crusaders	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Glentoran - Ballymena United	2:1 ✺
Northern Irish Cup
03.02.26	Ballymena United - Larne	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 TLWLL
- Larne FC
Northern Irish Premiership
24.02.26	Larne - Linfield	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Larne - Carrick Rangers	2:3 ✺
14.02.26	Portadown - Larne	2:1 ✺
10.02.26	Larne - Glentoran	2:2 ✺
Northern Irish Cup
07.02.26	Warrenpoint Town - Larne	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Cup
03.02.26	Ballymena United - Larne	1:2
Northern Irish League Cup
02.12.25	Ballymena United - Larne	2:0
Northern Irish Premiership
01.11.25	Ballymena United - Larne	0:2
29.08.25	Larne - Ballymena United	2:0
11.03.25	Ballymena United - Larne	1:2
25.01.25	Larne - Ballymena United	2:1
07.09.24	Larne - Ballymena United	0:1

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