Match Info

NORTHERN IRELAND: NIFL Premiership - Relegation Group

Date: 20 April 2024, Saturday

Location: Ballymena Showgrounds (Ballymena)

Referee: McNabb I. (Nir)


	Ballymena United		Newry City

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.6	4
	1.75	3.75	4.2
	1.76	3.97	4.24
	1.77	3.97	4.24
	1.67	3.7	4.33
	1.75	3.73	4.13
	1.78	3.7	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.8)	3.77 ↑ (3.76)	4.16 ↑ (4.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ballymena United
53.1%

Draw
24.6%

Newry City
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

24.8%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

20.9%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ballymena United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Newry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ballymena United than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ballymena United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newry City than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Newry City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ballymena United - Newry City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. O'Neill S. (G) 35. Barr B. 28. Boyle D. 29. Brown S. 7. Gawne A. 39. Mccallion D. 11. McCullough S. 36. McCurry C. 33. Stewart N. 16. Taylor F. 21. Tennant L.	1. Maguire S. (G) 16. Bagnall L. 44. Doyle B. 24. Forde L. 3. Healy N. 2. King D. 4. McGivern R. 11. McGovern J. 36. Mooney J. 27. O'Brien A. 14. Salley A.
Substitutes
26. Johnston S. (G) 32. McAuley S. 17. McGrory A. 27. McMurray J. 30. Place M. 31. Robinson J. 4. Rocks D.	8. Carroll A. 42. McDonagh J. 12. Mitchell C. (G) 18. Moan S. 38. Poynton G. 33. Scullion D.
Coaches
Ervin J.	McVeigh D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 🟨,
11', 🟨,
16', 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Stewart N. ⚽,
43', 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Stewart N. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', 3 - 0, McCurry C. ⚽,
57', Brown S. 🟨,
58', Gawne A. ↓, Rocks D. ↑,
58', Tennant L. ↓, McAuley S. ↑,
61', 🟨,
68', Barr B. ↓, Place M. ↑,
68', Brown S. ↓, McGrory A. ↑,
79', 🟨,
79', 4 - 0, McCullough S. (Pen),
80', Stewart N. ↓, McMurray J. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ballymena United won 0.

Recent matches Ballymena United is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Newry City has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Ballymena United is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Ballymena United won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Ballymena United won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ballymena United
Northern Irish Premiership
16.04.24	Ballymena United - Glenavon	1:0 ✺
13.04.24	Carrick Rangers - Ballymena United	2:1 ✺
06.04.24	Loughgall - Ballymena United	2:3 ✺
23.03.24	Glentoran - Ballymena United	4:0 ✺
16.03.24	Ballymena United - Carrick Rangers	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WLWLL
- Newry City
Northern Irish Premiership
16.04.24	Newry City - Carrick Rangers	1:3 ✺
13.04.24	Newry City - Dungannon Swifts	0:2 ✺
06.04.24	Glenavon - Newry City	3:2 ✺
23.03.24	Newry City - Crusaders	0:1 ✺
16.03.24	Linfield - Newry City	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
09.02.24	Newry City - Ballymena United	1:1
08.12.23	Newry City - Ballymena United	0:0
07.10.23	Ballymena United - Newry City	0:2
22.04.23	Newry City - Ballymena United	2:2
24.01.23	Ballymena United - Newry City	0:0
08.11.22	Newry City - Ballymena United	3:2
04.11.22	Ballymena United - Newry City	3:0

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