Match Info

RUSSIA: FNL - Round 20

Date: 23 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Rostec Arena (Kaliningrad)

Referee: Sokolov O. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Match TV


	Baltika Kaliningrad		Rodina Moscow

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.49	5.24
	1.74	3.44	5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.77)	3.47 ↑ (3.4)	5.12 ↑ (4.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baltika Kaliningrad
54.2%

Draw
27.3%

Rodina Moscow
18.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

27.6%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

27.4%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baltika Kaliningrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Rodina Moscow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baltika Kaliningrad than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rodina Moscow than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Baltika Kaliningrad - Rodina Moscow Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
67. Borisko M. (G) 16. Andrade K. 70. Eldarushev A. 11. Kovalev Y. 8. Mendel A. 96. Mokhammad A. 5. Osipov A. (C) 95. Petrov I. 19. Pryakhin S. 17. Saus V. 2. Varatynov S.	16. Koryakin A. (G) 72. Gordyushenko A. 9. Kalmykov A. 15. Kochiev K. 11. Kozhedub S. 55. Krizan M. 26. Meshchaninov A. (C) 38. Musaev L. 10. Reyna Y. 68. Ryadno M. 88. Sokol A.
Substitutes
10. Alex Fernandes 14. Appaev K. 59. Avanesyan T. 4. Gassama N. 3. Kalachev I. 99. Lisakovich V. 44. Lyubakov E. (G) 18. Nikishin K. 9. Stefanovich I. 1. Svinov I. (G) 13. Terentjev D. 22. Titkov N.	18. Abdusalamov M. 28. Burlakov M. 95. Chernyshev D. 30. Danilin M. 22. Gapechkin A. 89. Maltsev R. 12. Markitesov D. 23. Sangare D. (G) 87. Stefanishin A. 21. Yudintsev G. 7. Yushin A.
Coaches
Talalaev A.	Beschastnykh V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Kovalev Y. ⚽,
20', Varatynov S. 🟨,
23', Krizan M. ↓, Chernyshev D. ↑,
28', 2 - 0, Varatynov S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Varatynov S. ↓, Gassama N. ↑,
46', Eldarushev A. ↓, Stefanovich I. ↑,
46', Kozhedub S. ↓, Yushin A. ↑,
56', Reyna Y. ↓, Danilin M. ↑,
56', Kalmykov A. ↓, Abdusalamov M. ↑,
57', Yushin A. 🟨,
61', Kovalev Y. ↓, Lisakovich V. ↑,
65', Mokhammad A. ↓, Terentjev D. ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Abdusalamov M. ⚽,
73', Saus V. 🟨,
79', Musaev L. ↓, Markitesov D. ↑,
82', Stefanovich I. ↓, Nikishin K. ↑,

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 10).

Baltika is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Rodina is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Baltika is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Baltika to win the game is with odds 1.74.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Baltika won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 0.8:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Baltika won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baltika Kaliningrad
Russian FNL
16.11.24	KAMAZ - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:1 ✺
09.11.24	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:2 ✺
03.11.24	Baltika Kaliningrad - SKA Khabarovsk	2:0 ✺
Russian Cup
29.10.24	Baltika Kaliningrad - Ural	0:1 ✺
Russian FNL
26.10.24	Baltika Kaliningrad - Ural	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWWLW
- Rodina Moscow
Russian FNL
17.11.24	Rodina Moscow - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:1 ✺
10.11.24	Rodina Moscow - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	2:0 ✺
04.11.24	Ural - Rodina Moscow	0:0 ✺
27.10.24	Rodina Moscow - Torpedo Moscow	1:1 ✺
19.10.24	Sochi - Rodina Moscow	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
14.07.24	Rodina Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:0
07.04.23	Baltika Kaliningrad - Rodina Moscow	0:0
18.09.22	Rodina Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:2
Club Friendly
10.07.20	Baltika Kaliningrad - Rodina Moscow	1:2

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