Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Rostec Arena (Kaliningrad)

Referee: Chistyakov A. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	BandSports, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Russia	Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 9


	Baltika Kaliningrad		Zenit

	1	X	2
	4.54	3.54	1.93
	4.3	3.45	1.86
	4.51	3.57	1.95	Watch
	4	3.25	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.34 ↓ (4.4)	3.45 ↓ (3.65)	1.9 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baltika Kaliningrad
22%

Draw
27.7%

Zenit
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.9%

25.2%

53.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.6%

24.8%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baltika Kaliningrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Zenit has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baltika Kaliningrad than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zenit than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Baltika Kaliningrad - Zenit Predictions

Users Predictions: Zenit will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Latyshonok E. (G) 19. Shnaptsev M. 2. Varatynov S. 24. Mouyokolo L. 4. Gassama N. 22. Beveev M. 73. Petrov M. 8. Mendel A. (C) 5. Mourid A. 7. Shiltsov K. 91. Gil B.	16. Adamov D. (G) 31. Gustavo Mantuan 78. Diveev I. 25. Andrade K. 3. Douglas Santos (C) 5. Barrios W. 93. Karpukas A. 10. Glushenkov M. 20. Pedrinho 11. Luiz Henrique 7. Sobolev A.
Substitutes
26. Belikov I. 77. Civic E. 69. Golenkov E. 3. Kirsch I. 81. Kukushkin I. (G) 44. Lyubakov E. (G) 9. Offor C. 10. Petrov I. 11. Porokhov I. 42. Pospelov V. 68. Ryadno M.	28. Alip N. 21. Erokhin A. 9. Felipe Augusto 14. Jhon Jhon 15. Karavaev V. 61. Kondakov D. 57. Moskvichev B. (G) 38. Musaev A. 71. Odoevskiy D. (G) 51. Shilov V. 66. Vega R. 82. Volkov S.
Coaches
Talalaev A.	Semak S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Glushenkov M. ⚽, Karpukas A. (A),
16', 0 - 2, Sobolev A. ⚽, Pedrinho (A),
22', 1 - 2, Gil B. ⚽, Shiltsov K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Petrov M. ↓, Pospelov V. ↑,
46', Mourid A. ↓, Belikov I. ↑,
49', 1 - 3, Luiz Henrique ⚽, Sobolev A. (A),
53', Belikov I. 🟨,
63', Beveev M. ↓, Ryadno M. ↑,
63', Gil B. ↓, Golenkov E. ↑,
67', Karpukas A. ↓, Alip N. ↑,
67', Glushenkov M. ↓, Vega R. ↑,
70', Varatynov S. 🟨,
74', Gustavo Mantuan ↓, Karavaev V. ↑,
77', Shiltsov K. ↓, Petrov I. ↑,
81', 2 - 3, Petrov I. ⚽,
86', Pedrinho ↓, Kondakov D. ↑,
86', Sobolev A. ↓, Felipe Augusto ↑,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 and 5)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Baltika won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Zenit is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Baltika: Anderson E. (Yellow Cards) Filin A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Zenit: Wendel (Inactive)

There are questionable in Zenit: Gustavo Mantuan (Inactive)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Baltika won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Baltika won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.4:1).

Outrights of Russian Premier League for now

Baltika: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Zenit	10	7	0	3	22:11	11	21
10	Baltika	9	3	2	4	14:12	2	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baltika Kaliningrad
Russian Premier League
12.09.26	Fakel - Baltika Kaliningrad	2:2 ✺
06.09.26	Baltika Kaliningrad - Lokomotiv Moscow	0:1 ✺
Russian Cup
02.09.26	Baltika Kaliningrad - Krylya Sovetov	0:1 penalties ✺
Russian Premier League
30.08.26	Rodina Moscow - Baltika Kaliningrad	0:3 ✺
24.08.26	Baltika Kaliningrad - Rubin Kazan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLLWT
- Zenit St Petersburg
Russian Premier League
12.09.26	Zenit - Lokomotiv Moscow	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Zenit - CSKA Moscow	1:2 ✺
Russian Cup
02.09.26	Zenit - Dynamo Makhachkala	3:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
29.08.26	Fakel - Zenit	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Spartak Moscow - Zenit	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Cup
05.08.26	Zenit - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:0
03.03.26	Baltika Kaliningrad - Zenit	0:1
Russian Premier League
27.02.26	Zenit - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:0
14.09.25	Baltika Kaliningrad - Zenit	0:0
Club Friendly
06.07.25	Zenit - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:2
Russian Cup
02.06.24	Baltika Kaliningrad - Zenit	1:2
Russian Premier League
07.04.24	Zenit - Baltika Kaliningrad	1:0

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