Match Info

SPAIN: TERCERA RFEF - GROUP 4 - ROUND 24

Date: 11 March 2023, Saturday


	Barakaldo		Leioa

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.6	5
	1.52	3.6	4.7
	1.5	3.73	5.04
	1.57	3.64	5.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.35)	3.64 ↓ (4.9)	5.12 ↓ (6.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barakaldo
58.1%

Draw
24.5%

Leioa
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.8%

18.7%

13.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.3%

18%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barakaldo's form might have worsened.

Leioa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barakaldo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leioa than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Barakaldo - Leioa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Barakaldo won 2.

Barakaldo in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Leioa is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Barakaldo is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Barakaldo to win the game is with odds 1.54.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Barakaldo won 8 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 26-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Barakaldo won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
05.03.23	Portugalete - Barakaldo	0:1 ✺
26.02.23	Barakaldo - Pasaia	3:0 ✺
18.02.23	San Ignacio - Barakaldo	0:1 ✺
12.02.23	Barakaldo - Vitoria	0:0 ✺
04.02.23	Basconia - Barakaldo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWTW
- SD Leioa
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
04.03.23	Leioa - Deusto	3:1 ✺
25.02.23	Touring KE - Leioa	3:0 ✺
18.02.23	Leioa - Aurrerá de Vitoria	3:0 ✺
11.02.23	Durango - Leioa	1:2 ✺
04.02.23	Leioa - Padura	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
05.11.22	Leioa - Barakaldo	0:6
20.02.22	Leioa - Barakaldo	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
28.03.21	Barakaldo - Leioa	2:0
09.01.21	Leioa - Barakaldo	2:2
02.02.20	Barakaldo - Leioa	1:2
14.09.19	Leioa - Barakaldo	1:3
12.05.19	Leioa - Barakaldo	3:0

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