Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 33

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Campo de Lasesarre (Barakaldo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Barakaldo		Sestao

	1	X	2
	1.95	3	3.8
	1.85	3	4.1
	1.99	3.2	3.8
	2.02	3.3	3.73
	1.97	3.22	3.71	Watch
	1.95	3.26	3.81
	1.99	3.2	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.87)	3.17 ↑ (3.13)	3.82 ↓ (4.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barakaldo
46.9%

Draw
29%

Sestao
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.1%

29.4%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

31.3%

20.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Sestao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barakaldo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sestao than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Barakaldo - Sestao Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Perez U. (G) 2. de Jesus B. 12. Artetxe M. 3. Garcia B. 4. Jelbat A. 8. Huidobro J. 5. Molina E. 22. Bujan U. 21. Uriarte K. 18. Santiago P. 9. Valino A.	13. Herrerin I. (G) 22. Etxeberria M. 5. Martinez G. 23. Efremov A. 12. Barandalla M. 8. Garai G. 6. Gomez A. 10. Martinez Ortiz L. (C) 15. Bustillo M. 18. Cordoba A. 9. Aznar D.
Substitutes
23. Bilbao L. 19. Isuskiza V. 20. Martinez J. 15. Muguruza A. 7. Pedernales I. 11. Revilla A. 1. Tena J. (G) 14. Txoperena U.	14. Garcia S. 1. Garrido J. (G) 30. Matar P. 21. Miranda A. 7. Planas A. 4. Relu 19. Rojo J. 17. Samperio J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Bujan U. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
52', Bujan U. 🟨,
53', 1 - 1, Aznar D. ⚽,
64', Uriarte K. ↓, Bilbao L. ↑,
64', Bujan U. ↓, Bittor ↑,
66', 🟨,
74', 🟨,
76', Valino A. ↓, Revilla A. ↑,
76', Santiago P. ↓, Txoperena U. ↑,
78', Martinez Ortiz L. ↓, Samperio J. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Jelbat A. ⚽,
80', Garai G. ↓, Relu ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Relu ⚽,
90+2', 🟨,
90+7', 2 - 3, Garcia B. (Own goal),

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 7 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Barakaldo won 2.

Barakaldo is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Sestao is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Barakaldo is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Barakaldo won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 15:8 (average 1.4:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Barakaldo won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 1.6:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.04.25	Osasuna B - Barakaldo	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Barakaldo - Athletic Bilbao B	0:0 ✺
30.03.25	Real Sociedad B - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
23.03.25	Barakaldo - Celta de Vigo B	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTTLL
- Sestao River
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
13.04.25	Barcelona B - Sestao	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Sestao - Gimnástic de Tarragona	3:2 ✺
30.03.25	Osasuna B - Sestao	1:5 ✺
22.03.25	Sestao - Tarazona	0:2 ✺
14.03.25	Celta de Vigo B - Sestao	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
23.11.24	Sestao - Barakaldo	0:1
Club Friendly
24.08.22	Sestao - Barakaldo	1:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
12.02.17	Sestao - Barakaldo	3:2
25.09.16	Barakaldo - Sestao	1:1
07.05.16	Barakaldo - Sestao	3:1
19.12.15	Sestao - Barakaldo	0:1
01.04.15	Sestao - Barakaldo	1:1

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