Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 12

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Tajonar Facilities Stadium (Pamplona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Osasuna B		Barakaldo

	1	X	2
	3.3	2.88	2.15
	3.3	3	2.18
	3.39	3.09	2.24
	2.77	2.98	2.63	Watch
	3.45	3	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (2.77)	2.99 ↑ (2.98)	2.29 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osasuna B
28.6%

Draw
31%

Barakaldo
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

31.2%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

30.9%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osasuna B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Barakaldo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barakaldo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna B than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Osasuna B - Barakaldo Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Barakaldo will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Barakaldo (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stamatakis D. (G) 4. Espejo D. 21. Ruiz R. C. 36. Kepa 24. Osambela A. 34. Arrasate I. 6. Echegoyen M. 16. Auria M. 8. Yoldi A. 17. Arroyo R. 7. Lumbreras C.	1. Ispizua I. (G) 18. Arana M. 4. Dufur U. 16. Lopez O. 2. de Jesus B. 8. Huidobro J. 6. Naveira U. 21. San Bartolome V. 11. Perez E. 17. de Leon J. 10. Sabin
Substitutes
30. Anso M. 19. Bonel A. 14. Garcia J. 26. Garin X. 3. Jimenez A. 11. Pedroarena M. 20. Perez B. 13. Rafa (G) 5. Santos U.	23. Albizua U. 13. Campos G. (G) 19. Galarza A. 3. Garcia B. 20. Mandiang S. 5. Molina E. 14. Munoz I. 7. Pedernales I. 24. Ropero I. 22. Torra M. 9. Valino A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Kepa ↓, Jimenez A. ↑,
24', Arana M. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Arroyo R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', Auria M. 🟨,
69', Sabin ↓, Galarza A. ↑,
69', 2 - 0, Ruiz R. C. ⚽,
72', Arroyo R. ↓, Bonel A. ↑,
72', Auria M. ↓, Santos U. ↑,
72', Galarza A. 🟨,
73', Perez E. ↓, Valino A. ↑,
74', Huidobro J. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
79', Naveira U. 🟨,
83', Espejo D. ↓, Garin X. ↑,
83', Lumbreras C. ↓, Pedroarena M. ↑,
86', de Jesus B. ↓, Torra M. ↑,
86', de Leon J. ↓, Pedernales I. ↑,
87', 🟨,
87', 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osasuna B won 3.

Osasuna B has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Barakaldo is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Osasuna B may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Barakaldo could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Osasuna B won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Osasuna B won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Barakaldo - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.31%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Osasuna B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.11.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - Osasuna B	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Osasuna B - Celta de Vigo B	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Talavera de la Reina - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Pontevedra - Osasuna B	2:2 ✺
12.10.25	Osasuna B - Ferrol	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LTLTL
- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.11.25	Barakaldo - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
31.10.25	Lugo - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
24.10.25	Barakaldo - Tenerife	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	CD Guadalajara - Barakaldo	1:1 ✺
10.10.25	Barakaldo - Athletic Bilbao B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.07.25	Barakaldo - Osasuna B	1:2
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.04.25	Osasuna B - Barakaldo	2:1
22.12.24	Barakaldo - Osasuna B	2:1
Club Friendly
19.08.23	Barakaldo - Osasuna B	3:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
16.11.19	Osasuna B - Barakaldo	1:0
14.02.18	Osasuna B - Barakaldo	0:1
20.08.17	Barakaldo - Osasuna B	3:0

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