Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 23 October 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys (Barcelona)

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Fox Sports
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
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Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
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Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
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China	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	CANAL+ Foot
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2, Cosmote Sport 4K
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
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Hungary	RTL+, Sport 1
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Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
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Italy	NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Calcio, TV8
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Singapore	beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
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Turkey	beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
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Venezuela	Inter
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World	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, Virgin TV Go app


	Barcelona		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.8	2.5
	2.55	3.8	2.5
	2.6	3.9	2.52	Watch
	2.62	3.93	2.56
	2.6	3.9	2.58	Watch
	2.62	3.75	2.5
	2.66	3.98	2.54
	2.6	3.9	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.22)	3.87 ↓ (4.01)	2.53 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: UniMás, TUDN

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona
37%

Draw
24.9%

Bayern Munich
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

23.9%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

23.6%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barcelona's form might have worsened.

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bayern Munich's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barcelona, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bayern Munich, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.9%	32.9%	19.2%

Barcelona - Bayern Munich Predictions

Users Predictions: 70 users predict this event. Barcelona will win (votes: 33 - 47.1%). Bayern will win (votes: 14 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 23 - 32.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 35.4% – 58.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Pena I. (G) 23. Kounde J. 2. Cubarsi P. 5. Martinez I. 3. Balde A. 8. Pedri 17. Casado M. 16. Lopez F. 19. Yamal L. 9. Lewandowski R. 11. Raphinha (C)	1. Neuer M. (C) 22. Guerreiro R. 2. Upamecano D. 3. Kim Min-Jae 19. Davies A. 6. Kimmich J. 16. Palhinha J. 17. Olise M. 25. Muller T. 7. Gnabry S. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
21. de Jong F. 36. Dominguez S. 10. Fati A. 32. Fort H. 6. Gavi 31. Kochen D. (G) 35. Martin G. 20. Olmo D. 25. Szczesny W. (G) 14. Torre P. 18. Victor P.	49. Aznou A. 11. Coman K. 15. Dier E. 8. Goretzka L. 20. Ibrahimovic A. 27. Laimer K. 42. Musiala J. 18. Peretz D. (G) 10. Sane L. 39. Tel M. 26. Ulreich S. (G)
Coaches
Flick H.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Raphinha ⚽, Lopez F. (A),
18', 1 - 1, Kane H. ⚽, Gnabry S. (A),
27', Kimmich J. 🟨,
36', 2 - 1, Lewandowski R. ⚽, Lopez F. (A),
45', 3 - 1, Raphinha ⚽, Casado M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 4 - 1, Raphinha ⚽, Yamal L. (A),
60', Olise M. ↓, Sane L. ↑,
60', Muller T. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
60', Gnabry S. ↓, Coman K. ↑,
60', Palhinha J. ↓, Goretzka L. ↑,
61', Lopez F. ↓, de Jong F. ↑,
75', Raphinha ↓, Olmo D. ↑,
85', Yamal L. ↓, Fati A. ↑,
85', Lewandowski R. ↓, Victor P. ↑,
85', Pedri ↓, Gavi ↑,
85', Guerreiro R. ↓, Laimer K. ↑,
90', Goretzka L. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 0.

Barcelona is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Bayern is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Barcelona could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Barcelona: Araujo R. (Muscle Injury) Bernal M. (Knee Injury) Christensen A. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Torres F. (Muscle Injury) ter Stegen M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Boey S. (Knee Injury) Buchmann T. (Muscle Injury) Ito H. (Foot Injury) Pavlovic A. (Broken collarbone) Stanisic J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Barcelona: Garcia E. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Bayern: Musiala J. (Hip Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 7:31 (average 0.7:3.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Barcelona won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5:17 (average 1:3.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Barcelona
Spanish LaLiga
20.10.24	Barcelona - Sevilla	5:1 ✺
06.10.24	Deportivo Alavés - Barcelona	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.24	Barcelona - Young Boys	5:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
28.09.24	Osasuna - Barcelona	4:2 ✺
25.09.24	Barcelona - Getafe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWWLW
- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
19.10.24	Bayern Munich - Stuttgart	4:0 ✺
06.10.24	Eintracht Frankfurt - Bayern Munich	3:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
02.10.24	Aston Villa - Bayern Munich	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
28.09.24	Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
21.09.24	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
26.10.22	Barcelona - Bayern Munich	0:3
13.09.22	Bayern Munich - Barcelona	2:0
08.12.21	Bayern Munich - Barcelona	3:0
14.09.21	Barcelona - Bayern Munich	0:3
14.08.20	Barcelona - Bayern Munich	2:8
12.05.15	Bayern Munich - Barcelona	3:2
06.05.15	Barcelona - Bayern Munich	3:0

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