Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 23 October 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys (Barcelona) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Vincic S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Afghanistan	23:30	Asr TV, Meraj Sport
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	16:00	Fox Sports
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	06:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 2
Azerbaijan	23:00	CBC Sport
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, RTL Club, RTL Play, VTM 2, VTM GO
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1, Moja TV
Brazil	16:00	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, TNT, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	16:00	ESPN Premium
China	03:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Colombia	14:00	ESPN 2
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 1, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	21:00	TV3+, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	21:00	CANAL+ Foot
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 2, Cosmote Sport 4K
Haiti	15:00	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 1
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	00:30	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Sony Sports TEN 3
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Ireland	20:00	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, Sky Calcio 1, Sky Sport 252, Sky Sport Calcio, TV8
Japan	04:00	Wowow Prime
Kazakhstan	01:00	Qazsport, Q Sport Arena
Kosovo	21:00	ART Motion Sport 1
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Luxembourg	21:00	RTL 2, RTL 2
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 3, TVM Sport+
Montenegro	21:00	Arena Premium 1
Myanmar	01:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 2
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan Sports 2
North Central America	—	ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:00	Arena Premium 1, TDM Desporto
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 1
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	03:00	beIN Sports 3, StarHub TV+
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 1
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	03:00	ELTA Sports 1
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	22:00	beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	20:00	beIN Sports MENA English 1, Discovery+ UK, Sport 24 International, TNT Sports 4, TNT Sports 5
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, SiriusXM FC, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	15:00	Inter
Vietnam	02:00	TV 360
International	19:00	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, Virgin TV Go app


	Barcelona		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.8	2.5
	2.55	3.8	2.5
	2.6	3.9	2.52	Watch
	2.62	3.93	2.56
	2.6	3.9	2.58	Watch
	2.62	3.75	2.5
	2.66	3.98	2.54
	2.6	3.9	2.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.22)	3.87 ↓ (4.01)	2.53 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: UniMás, TUDN

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona
37%

Draw
24.9%

Bayern Munich
38.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.1%

23.9%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

23.6%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barcelona's form might have worsened.

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bayern Munich's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barcelona, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bayern Munich, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.9%	32.9%	19.2%

Barcelona - Bayern Munich Predictions

Users Predictions: 70 users predict this event. Barcelona will win (votes: 33 - 47.1%). Bayern will win (votes: 14 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 23 - 32.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 35.4% – 58.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Pena I. (G) 23. Kounde J. 2. Cubarsi P. 5. Martinez I. 3. Balde A. 8. Pedri 17. Casado M. 16. Lopez F. 19. Yamal L. 9. Lewandowski R. 11. Raphinha (C)	1. Neuer M. (C) 22. Guerreiro R. 2. Upamecano D. 3. Kim Min-Jae 19. Davies A. 6. Kimmich J. 16. Palhinha J. 17. Olise M. 25. Muller T. 7. Gnabry S. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
21. de Jong F. 36. Dominguez S. 10. Fati A. 32. Fort H. 6. Gavi 31. Kochen D. (G) 35. Martin G. 20. Olmo D. 25. Szczesny W. (G) 14. Torre P. 18. Victor P.	49. Aznou A. 11. Coman K. 15. Dier E. 8. Goretzka L. 20. Ibrahimovic A. 27. Laimer K. 42. Musiala J. 18. Peretz D. (G) 10. Sane L. 39. Tel M. 26. Ulreich S. (G)
Coaches
Flick H.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Raphinha ⚽, Lopez F. (A),
18', 1 - 1, Kane H. ⚽, Gnabry S. (A),
27', Kimmich J. 🟨,
36', 2 - 1, Lewandowski R. ⚽, Lopez F. (A),
45', 3 - 1, Raphinha ⚽, Casado M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 4 - 1, Raphinha ⚽, Yamal L. (A),
60', Olise M. ↓, Sane L. ↑,
60', Muller T. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
60', Gnabry S. ↓, Coman K. ↑,
60', Palhinha J. ↓, Goretzka L. ↑,
61', Lopez F. ↓, de Jong F. ↑,
75', Raphinha ↓, Olmo D. ↑,
85', Yamal L. ↓, Fati A. ↑,
85', Lewandowski R. ↓, Victor P. ↑,
85', Pedri ↓, Gavi ↑,
85', Guerreiro R. ↓, Laimer K. ↑,
90', Goretzka L. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 0.

Barcelona is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Bayern is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Barcelona could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Barcelona: Araujo R. (Muscle Injury) Bernal M. (Knee Injury) Christensen A. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Torres F. (Muscle Injury) ter Stegen M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Boey S. (Knee Injury) Buchmann T. (Muscle Injury) Ito H. (Foot Injury) Pavlovic A. (Broken collarbone) Stanisic J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Barcelona: Garcia E. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Bayern: Musiala J. (Hip Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 7:31 (average 0.7:3.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Barcelona won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 5:17 (average 1:3.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Barcelona
Spanish LaLiga
20.10.24	Barcelona - Sevilla	5:1 ✺
06.10.24	Deportivo Alavés - Barcelona	0:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.24	Barcelona - Young Boys	5:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
28.09.24	Osasuna - Barcelona	4:2 ✺
25.09.24	Barcelona - Getafe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWWLW
- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
19.10.24	Bayern Munich - Stuttgart	4:0 ✺
06.10.24	Eintracht Frankfurt - Bayern Munich	3:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
02.10.24	Aston Villa - Bayern Munich	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
28.09.24	Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
21.09.24	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
26.10.22	Barcelona - Bayern Munich	0:3
13.09.22	Bayern Munich - Barcelona	2:0
08.12.21	Bayern Munich - Barcelona	3:0
14.09.21	Barcelona - Bayern Munich	0:3
14.08.20	Barcelona - Bayern Munich	2:8
12.05.15	Bayern Munich - Barcelona	3:2
06.05.15	Barcelona - Bayern Munich	3:0

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