Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 22

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Weserstadion (Bremen)

Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Werder Bremen		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	8	5.75	1.33	Watch
	9.3	5.9	1.29	Watch
	9.4	6.57	1.31
	9.01	6.22	1.32	Watch
	8	5.5	1.3	Watch
	9.25	6.15	1.34	Watch
	9	5.5	1.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.85 ↑ (6.87)	5.94 ↑ (5.83)	1.32 ↓ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Werder Bremen
10.8%

Draw
16.2%

Bayern Munich
73%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.8%

16.3%

69.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.4%

15.9%

71.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Werder Bremen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.9%	14.3%	82.9%

Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Werder (2.03) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -1 - Bayern (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayern Munich will win (28 of 32 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.04% – 98.96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayern Munich will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Werder (votes: 2 - 13.3%). Bayern (votes: 12 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Backhaus M. (G) 4. Stark N. 32. Friedl M. (C) 31. Coulibaly K. 18. Puertas C. 14. Lynen S. 27. Agu F. 6. Stage J. 20. Schmid R. 11. Njinmah J. 17. Grull M.	1. Neuer M. (C) 27. Laimer K. 3. Kim Min-Jae 4. Tah J. 44. Stanisic J. 6. Kimmich J. 8. Goretzka L. 42. Karl L. 7. Gnabry S. 14. Diaz L. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
24. Covic P. 2. Deman O. 13. Hein K. (G) 22. Malatini J. 7. Mbangula S. 19. Milosevic J. 23. Schmidt I. 3. Sugawara Y. 9. Topp K.	20. Bischof T. 19. Davies A. 21. Ito H. 11. Jackson N. 10. Musiala J. 45. Pavlovic A. 26. Ulreich S. (G) 2. Upamecano D. 40. Urbig J. (G)
Coaches
Thioune D.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
22', 0 - 1, Kane H. (Penalty Awarded),
25', 0 - 2, Kane H. ⚽, Diaz L. (A),
28', Lynen S. 🟨,
37', Stark N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Stark N. ↓, Mbangula S. ↑,
46', Neuer M. ↓, Urbig J. ↑,
61', Coulibaly K. ↓, Malatini J. ↑,
65', Agu F. ↓, Schmidt I. ↑,
65', Stage J. ↓, Covic P. ↑,
69', Gnabry S. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
69', Stanisic J. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
70', 0 - 3, Goretzka L. ⚽, Davies A. (A),
76', Kimmich J. ↓, Bischof T. ↑,
79', Njinmah J. ↓, Sugawara Y. ↑,
80', Musiala J. 🟨,
86', Kane H. ↓, Jackson N. ↑,
90', Puertas C. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Werder won 1.

Recent form of Werder has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Bayern is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Werder may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Bayern is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Werder: Boniface V. (Knee Injury) Pieper A. (Knee Injury) Weiser M. (Knee Injury) Wober M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Olise M. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Werder: Bittencourt L. (Muscle Injury) Stark N. (Lacking Match Fitness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Werder won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 18 matches, and goals 12:59. (average 0.6:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Werder won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 6:26. (average 0.6:2.6).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayern Munich: 79.95% Werder Bremen: 0.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	14:2	12	10
4	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	10:10	0	8

Last Results with these Odds

Bayern Munich - the odds 1.36 are the expected chance of winning is 69.87%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
07.02.26	Freiburg - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Werder Bremen - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
16.01.26	Werder Bremen - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LTLLT
- Bayern Munich
German DFB Pokal
11.02.26	Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
08.02.26	Bayern Munich - Hoffenheim	5:1 ✺
31.01.26	Hamburger SV - Bayern Munich	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	PSV Eindhoven - Bayern Munich	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
24.01.26	Bayern Munich - Augsburg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
26.09.25	Bayern Munich - Werder Bremen	4:0
07.02.25	Bayern Munich - Werder Bremen	3:0
21.09.24	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	0:5
21.01.24	Bayern Munich - Werder Bremen	0:1
18.08.23	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	0:4
06.05.23	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	1:2
08.11.22	Bayern Munich - Werder Bremen	6:1

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