Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 2 October 2024, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Petrescu R. M. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport Variety 1, SuperSport Variety 2
Argentina	16:00	Fox Sports
Armenia	23:00	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	05:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 2
Azerbaijan	23:00	Ictimai TV
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 3, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 4
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	16:00	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, Space, Space, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Ring, Voyo
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
China	03:00	iQIYI, QQ Sports
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 5, Cytavision Sports 5
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	21:00	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Sub, MTV Urheilu 1
France	21:00	Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport, Free, New World TV
Georgia	23:00	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 5, MEGA
Hong Kong	03:00	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	19:00	Viaplay
India	00:30	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Sony Sports TEN 3, Sony Sports TEN 5
Indonesia	02:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Ireland	20:00	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, Sky Sport 254
Japan	04:00	Wowow Cinema
Kazakhstan	01:00	Qazsport, Q Sport Arena, Q Sport
Laos	02:00	beIN Connect
Luxembourg	21:00	RTL 2, RTL 2
Malaysia	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	13:00	Caliente TV
Moldova	22:00	Jurnal TV
Montenegro	21:00	Arena Sport 3
Myanmar	01:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 6
New Zealand	08:00	DAZN New Zealand
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1
Pakistan	00:00	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	05:00	TVWan Sports
Philippines	03:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	TVP 1, TVP Sport
Portugal	20:00	DAZN 2
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	22:00	Okko Sport
Singapore	03:00	StarHub TV+
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 3
South America	—	ESPN 7 Latin America, ESPN7 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 3, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	21:00	TV6, Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport D2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	02:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Turkey	22:00	beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	20:00	BBC Radio 5 Live, BBC Radio, beIN Sports MENA English 1, Discovery+ UK, Sky Ultra, TNT Sports, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	15:00	Inter
Vietnam	02:00	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360
International	19:00	Disney+, JioTV app, Prima+ app, Virgin TV Go app


	Aston Villa		Bayern Munich

	1	X	2
	4.33	4.2	1.7
	4.33	4.2	1.7
	4.5	4.45	1.7
	4.38	4.35	1.74
	4.36	4.39	1.73	Watch
	4.75	4.33	1.65
	4.84	4.63	1.69
	4.65	4.45	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.52 ↑ (4.08)	4.38 ↑ (4.12)	1.7 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
21.3%

Draw
22%

Bayern Munich
56.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.5%

23.3%

53.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.5%

23.3%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Bayern Munich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayern Munich than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.9%	4%	88.1%

Aston Villa - Bayern Munich Predictions

Users Predictions: Bayern Munich will win (108 of 122 users predict this - 88.52%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.86% – 94.18%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (C) 4. Konsa E. 3. Diego Carlos 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 41. Ramsey J. 24. Onana A. 8. Tielemans Y. 19. Philogene J. 27. Rogers M. 11. Watkins O.	1. Neuer M. (C) 6. Kimmich J. 2. Upamecano D. 3. Kim Min-Jae 19. Davies A. 27. Laimer K. 45. Pavlovic A. 11. Coman K. 17. Olise M. 7. Gnabry S. 9. Kane H.
Substitutes
31. Bailey L. 6. Barkley R. 26. Bogarde L. 10. Buendia E. 2. Cash M. 9. Duran J. 18. Gauci J. (G) 22. Maatsen I. 20. Nedeljkovic K. 50. Swinkels S. 72. Young K. 48. Zych O. (G)	15. Dier E. 8. Goretzka L. 22. Guerreiro R. 25. Muller T. 42. Musiala J. 16. Palhinha J. 18. Peretz D. (G) 10. Sane L. 39. Tel M. 26. Ulreich S. (G)
Coaches
Emery U.	Kompany V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Upamecano D. 🟨,
27', Ramsey J. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Coman K. ↓, Musiala J. ↑,
59', Onana A. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
60', Bailey L. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
66', Gnabry S. 🟨,
66', Olise M. ↓, Sane L. ↑,
70', Watkins O. ↓, Duran J. ↑,
76', Pavlovic A. ↓, Palhinha J. ↑,
79', 1 - 0, Duran J. ⚽, Torres P. (A),
86', Laimer K. ↓, Tel M. ↑,
86', Kim Min-Jae ↓, Goretzka L. ↑,
90+2', Maatsen I. 🟨,
90+4', Diego Carlos 🟨,
90+5', Duran J. 🟨,

Preview

During last matches two teams got success in matches and won.

Bayern could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bayern is a favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Kamara B. (Knee Injury) McGinn J. (Thigh Injury) Mings T. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bayern: Boey S. (Knee Injury) Buchmann T. (Muscle Injury) Ibrahimovic A. (Muscle Injury) Stanisic J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Cash M. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Bayern: Ito H. (Foot Injury) Peretz D. (Hip Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
29.09.24	Ipswich Town - Aston Villa	2:2 ✺
English League Cup
24.09.24	Wycombe Wanderers - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
21.09.24	Aston Villa - Wolverhampton Wanderers	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.24	Young Boys - Aston Villa	0:3 ✺
English Premier League
14.09.24	Aston Villa - Everton	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWWWW
- Bayern Munich
German Bundesliga
28.09.24	Bayern Munich - Bayer Leverkusen	1:1 ✺
21.09.24	Werder Bremen - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.24	Bayern Munich - Dinamo Zagreb	9:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.09.24	Holstein Kiel - Bayern Munich	1:6 ✺
01.09.24	Bayern Munich - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWWWW

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