Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys (Barcelona)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Barcelona		Benfica

	1	X	2
	1.4	5.25	6.5	Watch
	1.33	5.75	8
	1.41	5.45	6.9	Watch
	1.41	5.6	6.95
	1.42	5.46	6.66	Watch
	1.4	5	6.5
	1.42	5.58	7.17
	1.4	5.45	7.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↑ (1.38)	5.44 ↓ (5.58)	6.97 ↓ (7.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: Telemundo (KUTU-Tulsa, OK)

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona
68.6%

Draw
17.6%

Benfica
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

17.2%

13.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.8%

16.4%

12.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.8%	9.4%	7.8%

Barcelona - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: Barcelona will win (52 of 63 users predict this - 82.54%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.17% – 91.91%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Szczesny W. (G) 23. Kounde J. 4. Araujo R. (C) 5. Martinez I. 3. Balde A. 21. de Jong F. 8. Pedri 20. Olmo D. 19. Yamal L. 9. Lewandowski R. 11. Raphinha	1. Trubin A. (G) 44. Araujo T. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 26. Dahl S. 8. Aursnes F. 61. Florentino 10. Kokcu O. 17. Akturkoglu K. 14. Pavlidis V. 21. Schjelderup A.
Substitutes
17. Casado M. 10. Fati A. 32. Fort H. 24. Garcia E. 6. Gavi 31. Kochen D. (G) 16. Lopez F. 35. Martin G. 13. Pena I. (G) 14. Torre P. 7. Torres F. 18. Victor P.	7. Amdouni Z. 81. Bajrami A. 18. Barreiro L. 19. Belotti A. 9. Cabral A. 60. Felix N. 64. Oliveira G. 25. Prestianni G. 84. Rego J. 85. Sanches R. 71. Santos L. 24. Soares S. (G)
Coaches
Flick H.	Lage B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Raphinha ⚽, Yamal L. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Otamendi N. ⚽, Schjelderup A. (A),
27', 2 - 1, Yamal L. ⚽, Raphinha (A),
42', 3 - 1, Raphinha ⚽, Balde A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Silva A. 🟨,
56', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Sanches R. ↑,
56', Schjelderup A. ↓, Amdouni Z. ↑,
70', Lewandowski R. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
70', Olmo D. ↓, Gavi ↑,
70', Florentino ↓, Barreiro L. ↑,
70', Kokcu O. ↓, Belotti A. ↑,
81', Yamal L. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
81', de Jong F. ↓, Casado M. ↑,
84', Araujo T. ↓, Rego J. ↑,
87', Martinez I. ↓, Garcia E. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-0.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 2.

Barcelona in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Benfica is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Barcelona could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Benfica have a series of home games.

In this match Barcelona is certain favorite.

There will not play in Barcelona: Bernal M. (Knee Injury) Christensen A. (Calf Injury) Cubarsi P. (Red Card) ter Stegen M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Inactive) Carreras A. (Yellow Cards) Di Maria A. (Muscle Injury) Gouveia T. (Knee Injury) Manu (Knee Injury)

Our prediction for today's Barcelona to win the game is with odds 1.4.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:7 (average 1.3:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Barcelona won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0:0 (average 0:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Barcelona
UEFA Champions League
05.03.25	Benfica - Barcelona	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
02.03.25	Barcelona - Real Sociedad	4:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
25.02.25	Barcelona - Atlético Madrid	4:4 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
22.02.25	Las Palmas - Barcelona	0:2 ✺
17.02.25	Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWTWW
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
08.03.25	Benfica - Nacional	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.03.25	Benfica - Barcelona	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
26.02.25	Benfica - Braga	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
22.02.25	Benfica - Boavista	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.25	Benfica - Monaco	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
05.03.25	Benfica - Barcelona	0:1
21.01.25	Benfica - Barcelona	4:5
23.11.21	Barcelona - Benfica	0:0
29.09.21	Benfica - Barcelona	3:0
05.12.12	Barcelona - Benfica	0:0
02.10.12	Benfica - Barcelona	0:2

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