Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 February 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Nyberg G. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Argentina	ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Max
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	DAZN Canada
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1, New World TV
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 4
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	Stod 2 Sport 2, Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Japan	Wowow Cinema
Laos	beIN Connect
Macao	TDM TV
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Malta	TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Cinemax, HBO Max, MAX
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan
North-central-america	SportsMax 2 Caribbean, SportsMax App Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Canal+ Extra 2, Canal+ Sport Online
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Voyo
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport PSL
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, M+ Liga de Campeones 5
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 2, Virgin Media More
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus, TV 360
World	Disney+


	Benfica		Monaco

	1	X	2
	1.83	4.1	3.8
	1.88	4.2	3.8	Watch
	1.86	4.21	3.9
	1.86	4.27	3.82	Watch
	1.85	4	3.75
	1.93	4.3	3.73
	1.85	4.25	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.08)	4.19 ↑ (3.56)	3.81 ↓ (3.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
51.7%

Draw
23%

Monaco
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

27.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

28.6%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Monaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Benfica that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.2%	9.1%	11.7%

Benfica - Monaco Predictions

Users Predictions: Benfica will win (60 of 76 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.78% – 88.12%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 44. Araujo T. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 3. Carreras A. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 10. Kokcu O. 17. Akturkoglu K. 14. Pavlidis V. 21. Schjelderup A.	1. Majecki R. (G) 27. Diatta K. 5. Kehrer T. (C) 17. Singo W. 13. Mawissa Elebi C. 12. Caio Henrique 11. Akliouche M. 15. Camara L. 7. Ben Seghir E. 18. Minamino T. 36. Embolo B.
Substitutes
7. Amdouni Z. 81. Bajrami A. 19. Belotti A. 9. Cabral A. 26. Dahl S. 60. Felix N. 88. Freitas T. 25. Prestianni G. 86. Prioste D. 84. Rego J. 71. Santos L. 24. Soares S. (G)	14. Biereth M. 42. Bouabre S. 28. Coulibaly M. 37. Diop E. 21. Ilenikhena G. 16. Kohn P. (G) 50. Lienard Y. (G) 41. Michal L. 20. Ouattara K. 22. Salisu M.
Coaches
Lage B.	Hutter A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Akturkoglu K. ⚽, Pavlidis V. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Minamino T. ⚽, Embolo B. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
51', 1 - 2, Ben Seghir E. ⚽, Akliouche M. (A),
58', Schjelderup A. ↓, Dahl S. ↑,
58', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Amdouni Z. ↑,
62', Akliouche M. 🟨,
65', Embolo B. ↓, Biereth M. ↑,
67', Barreiro L. 🟨,
71', Amdouni Z. 🟨,
76', 2 - 2, Pavlidis V. (Pen),
80', Caio Henrique ↓, Ouattara K. ↑,
80', Mawissa Elebi C. ↓, Ilenikhena G. ↑,
81', 2 - 3, Ilenikhena G. ⚽,
84', 3 - 3, Kokcu O. ⚽, Carreras A. (A),
87', Minamino T. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
87', Pavlidis V. ↓, Belotti A. ↑,
87', Kokcu O. ↓, Rego J. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-0.

Benfica in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Monaco is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Benfica have a series of guest games.

Benfica will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Benfica: Araujo T. (Injury) Aursnes F. (Knee Injury) Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Inactive) Di Maria A. (Muscle Injury) Florentino (Yellow Cards) Gouveia T. (Shoulder Injury) Manu (Knee Injury) Sanches R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Monaco: Al Musrati (Red Card) Balogun F. (Shoulder Injury) Golovin A. (Groin Injury) Vanderson (Yellow Cards) Zakaria D. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Monaco: Ilenikhena G. (Muscle Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Benfica won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1.3:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Benfica won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
15.02.25	Santa Clara - Benfica	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.02.25	Monaco - Benfica	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.02.25	Benfica - Moreirense	3:2 ✺
02.02.25	Estrela da Amadora - Benfica	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Juventus - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWWW
- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
15.02.25	Monaco - Nantes	7:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.02.25	Monaco - Benfica	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
07.02.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	4:1 ✺
01.02.25	Monaco - Auxerre	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Inter Milan - Monaco	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
12.02.25	Monaco - Benfica	0:1
27.11.24	Monaco - Benfica	2:3
04.11.14	Benfica - Monaco	1:0
22.10.14	Monaco - Benfica	0:0

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