Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 February 2025, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Nyberg G. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Argentina	17:00	ESPN
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	17:00	Max
Bulgaria	22:00	Max Sport 4
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Colombia	15:00	ESPN 2
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	21:00	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	21:00	beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 1, New World TV
Georgia	00:00	Silk Sport 1
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 4
Hungary	21:00	RTL+
Iceland	20:00	Stod 2 Sport 2, Viaplay
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	22:00	5 PLUS Israel
Japan	05:00	Wowow Cinema
Laos	03:00	beIN Connect
Macao	04:00	TDM TV
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect
Malta	21:00	TSN Malta 5
Mexico	14:00	Cinemax, HBO Max, MAX
Montenegro	21:00	Arena Premium 1
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 5
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan
North Central America	—	SportsMax 2 Caribbean, SportsMax App Caribbean
North Macedonia	21:00	Arena Premium 1
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 2, Canal+ Sport Online
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
South Africa	22:00	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport PSL
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
Spain	21:00	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, M+ Liga de Campeones 5
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	03:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Turkey	23:00	Tabii
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United Kingdom	20:00	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 2, Virgin Media More
Usa	15:00	Paramount+
Venezuela	16:00	Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus, TV 360
International	20:00	Disney+


	Benfica		Monaco

	1	X	2
	1.83	4.1	3.8
	1.88	4.2	3.8	Watch
	1.86	4.21	3.9
	1.86	4.27	3.82	Watch
	1.85	4	3.75
	1.93	4.3	3.73
	1.85	4.25	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.08)	4.19 ↑ (3.56)	3.81 ↓ (3.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
51.7%

Draw
23%

Monaco
25.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.1%

27.5%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

28.6%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Monaco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Benfica that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.2%	9.1%	11.7%

Benfica - Monaco Predictions

Users Predictions: Benfica will win (60 of 76 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.78% – 88.12%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 44. Araujo T. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 3. Carreras A. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 10. Kokcu O. 17. Akturkoglu K. 14. Pavlidis V. 21. Schjelderup A.	1. Majecki R. (G) 27. Diatta K. 5. Kehrer T. (C) 17. Singo W. 13. Mawissa Elebi C. 12. Caio Henrique 11. Akliouche M. 15. Camara L. 7. Ben Seghir E. 18. Minamino T. 36. Embolo B.
Substitutes
7. Amdouni Z. 81. Bajrami A. 19. Belotti A. 9. Cabral A. 26. Dahl S. 60. Felix N. 88. Freitas T. 25. Prestianni G. 86. Prioste D. 84. Rego J. 71. Santos L. 24. Soares S. (G)	14. Biereth M. 42. Bouabre S. 28. Coulibaly M. 37. Diop E. 21. Ilenikhena G. 16. Kohn P. (G) 50. Lienard Y. (G) 41. Michal L. 20. Ouattara K. 22. Salisu M.
Coaches
Lage B.	Hutter A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Akturkoglu K. ⚽, Pavlidis V. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Minamino T. ⚽, Embolo B. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
51', 1 - 2, Ben Seghir E. ⚽, Akliouche M. (A),
58', Schjelderup A. ↓, Dahl S. ↑,
58', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Amdouni Z. ↑,
62', Akliouche M. 🟨,
65', Embolo B. ↓, Biereth M. ↑,
67', Barreiro L. 🟨,
71', Amdouni Z. 🟨,
76', 2 - 2, Pavlidis V. (Pen),
80', Caio Henrique ↓, Ouattara K. ↑,
80', Mawissa Elebi C. ↓, Ilenikhena G. ↑,
81', 2 - 3, Ilenikhena G. ⚽,
84', 3 - 3, Kokcu O. ⚽, Carreras A. (A),
87', Minamino T. ↓, Michal L. ↑,
87', Pavlidis V. ↓, Belotti A. ↑,
87', Kokcu O. ↓, Rego J. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-0.

Benfica in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Monaco is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Benfica have a series of guest games.

Benfica will have a poor advantage in this game.

There will not play in Benfica: Araujo T. (Injury) Aursnes F. (Knee Injury) Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Inactive) Di Maria A. (Muscle Injury) Florentino (Yellow Cards) Gouveia T. (Shoulder Injury) Manu (Knee Injury) Sanches R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Monaco: Al Musrati (Red Card) Balogun F. (Shoulder Injury) Golovin A. (Groin Injury) Vanderson (Yellow Cards) Zakaria D. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Monaco: Ilenikhena G. (Muscle Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Benfica won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1.3:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Benfica won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
15.02.25	Santa Clara - Benfica	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.02.25	Monaco - Benfica	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
08.02.25	Benfica - Moreirense	3:2 ✺
02.02.25	Estrela da Amadora - Benfica	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Juventus - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWWW
- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
15.02.25	Monaco - Nantes	7:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.02.25	Monaco - Benfica	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
07.02.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	4:1 ✺
01.02.25	Monaco - Auxerre	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.01.25	Inter Milan - Monaco	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
12.02.25	Monaco - Benfica	0:1
27.11.24	Monaco - Benfica	2:3
04.11.14	Benfica - Monaco	1:0
22.10.14	Monaco - Benfica	0:0

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