Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 33

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Bold+, Sport Live
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Selekt, Sport 1
Israel	Sport 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Go, Ziggo Sport 5
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Benfica TV, BTV Online
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Uruguay	Antel TV
Usa	Fubo Latino
World	Onefootball


	Benfica		Braga

	1	X	2
	1.37	4.75	7	Watch
	1.39	4.7	7.4	Watch
	1.4	5.06	7.89
	1.4	5.01	7.52	Watch
	1.4	4.6	7	Watch
	1.46	4.99	7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.47)	4.85 ↑ (4.47)	7.3 ↑ (6.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
67.5%

Draw
19.5%

Braga
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

21.2%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.7%

20.5%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Braga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	11.8%	5.9%

Benfica - Braga Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Benfica (1.59) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Benfica will win (27 of 33 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.66% – 94.98%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 44. Araujo T. 4. Silva A. (C) 26. Dahl S. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 25. Prestianni G. 27. Rafa Silva 21. Schjelderup A. 9. Ivanovic F.	1. Hornicek L. (G) 14. Lagerbielke G. 6. Vitor Carvalho 5. Lelo L. 2. Gomez V. 8. Moutinho J. (C) 34. Tiknaz D. E. 77. Martinez G. 29. Gorby 18. Victor P. 39. Navarro F.
Substitutes
6. Bah A. 5. Barrenechea E. 7. Bruma 11. Lukebakio D. 16. Manu 64. Oliveira G. 14. Pavlidis V. 24. Soares S. (G) 10. Sudakov G.	41. da Rocha Y. 20. Dorgeles M. 9. El Ouazzani A. 17. Gabriel Moscardo 90. Luisinho 53. Noro J. 15. Oliveira P. 12. Sa T. (G) 10. Zalazar R.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Vicens C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', 1 - 0, Rafa Silva ⚽,
48', 1 - 1, Victor P. ⚽, Gomez V. (A),
56', Hornicek L. 🟨,
57', Lelo L. 🟨,
61', Ivanovic F. ↓, Pavlidis V. ↑,
67', Martinez G. ↓, Dorgeles M. ↑,
74', Navarro F. ↓, Zalazar R. ↑,
76', Barreiro L. ↓, Lukebakio D. ↑,
82', Lelo L. ↓, Gabriel Moscardo ↑,
87', Dedic A. 🟨,
88', 1 - 2, Gorby ⚽, Dorgeles M. (A),
90+3', Vitor Carvalho 🟨,
90+5', 2 - 2, Pavlidis V. (Penalty Awarded),
90+6', Gomez V. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 2.

Benfica is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Braga has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Benfica is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Benfica will win today's game, with odds of 1.42.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 33:29. (average 1.7:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Benfica won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 23:14. (average 2.1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22:7	15	16
8	Braga	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
02.05.26	Famalicão - Benfica	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	Benfica - Moreirense	4:1 ✺
19.04.26	Sporting Lisbon - Benfica	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Benfica - Nacional	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Casa Pia - Benfica	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWWWT
- SC Braga
UEFA Europa League
07.05.26	Freiburg - Braga	3:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
03.05.26	Braga - Estoril Praia	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
30.04.26	Braga - Freiburg	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.04.26	Santa Clara - Braga	2:1 ✺
23.04.26	Casa Pia - Braga	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese League Cup
07.01.26	Benfica - Braga	1:3
Liga Portugal
28.12.25	Braga - Benfica	2:2
17.05.25	Braga - Benfica	1:1
Taça de Portugal
26.02.25	Benfica - Braga	1:0
Portuguese League Cup
08.01.25	Benfica - Braga	3:0
Liga Portugal
04.01.25	Benfica - Braga	1:2
27.04.24	Benfica - Braga	3:1

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