Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Benfica		Barcelona

	1	X	2
	3.6	4.33	1.83	Watch
	3.6	4.1	1.85
	3.8	4.25	1.85	Watch
	3.9	4.3	1.85
	3.91	4.3	1.83	Watch
	3.9	4	1.8
	4.07	4.43	1.79
	3.8	4.25	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↑ (3.52)	4.25 ↑ (4.15)	1.83 ↓ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: Telemundo (KUTU-Tulsa, OK)

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
25.1%

Draw
22.6%

Barcelona
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

23.1%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

23.4%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Barcelona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.1%	17.9%	74%

Benfica - Barcelona Predictions

Users Predictions: 117 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 9 - 7.7%). Barcelona will win (votes: 89 - 76.1%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 16.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 68.4% – 83.8%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 44. Araujo T. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 3. Carreras A. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 10. Kokcu O. 17. Akturkoglu K. 14. Pavlidis V. 21. Schjelderup A.	25. Szczesny W. (G) 23. Kounde J. 2. Cubarsi P. 5. Martinez I. 3. Balde A. 20. Olmo D. 21. de Jong F. (C) 8. Pedri 19. Yamal L. 9. Lewandowski R. 11. Raphinha
Substitutes
81. Bajrami A. 19. Belotti A. 9. Cabral A. 26. Dahl S. 79. Felix H. 60. Felix N. 25. Prestianni G. 86. Prioste D. 84. Rego J. 85. Sanches R. 71. Santos L. 24. Soares S. (G)	4. Araujo R. 17. Casado M. 10. Fati A. 32. Fort H. 24. Garcia E. 31. Kochen D. (G) 16. Lopez F. 35. Martin G. 13. Pena I. (G) 14. Torre P. 7. Torres F. 18. Victor P.
Coaches
Lage B.	Flick H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Cubarsi P. 🟥,
28', Olmo D. ↓, Araujo R. ↑,
45', Barreiro L. 🟨,
45+2', Martinez I. 🟨,
45+5', Silva A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Yamal L. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
57', Araujo T. ↓, Dahl S. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Raphinha ⚽,
70', Schjelderup A. ↓, Rego J. ↑,
70', Barreiro L. ↓, Belotti A. ↑,
73', Carreras A. 🟨,
79', Lewandowski R. ↓, Martin G. ↑,
79', de Jong F. ↓, Casado M. ↑,
84', Kokcu O. ↓, Sanches R. ↑,
84', Pavlidis V. ↓, Cabral A. ↑,
90+1', Rego J. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Both teams in the last matches got series of victories.

Benfica could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Barcelona will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Inactive) Di Maria A. (Muscle Injury) Gouveia T. (Shoulder Injury) Manu (Knee Injury) Sanches R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Barcelona: Bernal M. (Knee Injury) Christensen A. (Calf Injury) ter Stegen M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Benfica: Florentino (Muscle Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Benfica won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:7 (average 1.4:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Benfica won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:7 (average 2.3:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Taça de Portugal
26.02.25	Benfica - Braga	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
22.02.25	Benfica - Boavista	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.25	Benfica - Monaco	3:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
15.02.25	Santa Clara - Benfica	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.02.25	Monaco - Benfica	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWTWW
- FC Barcelona
Spanish LaLiga
02.03.25	Barcelona - Real Sociedad	4:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
25.02.25	Barcelona - Atlético Madrid	4:4 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
22.02.25	Las Palmas - Barcelona	0:2 ✺
17.02.25	Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Sevilla - Barcelona	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
21.01.25	Benfica - Barcelona	4:5
23.11.21	Barcelona - Benfica	0:0
29.09.21	Benfica - Barcelona	3:0
05.12.12	Barcelona - Benfica	0:0
02.10.12	Benfica - Barcelona	0:2

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