Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 5 March 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Afghanistan	00:30	Meraj Sport, Meraj TV, Solh Sports 1
Africa	—	DStv Now, New World Sport 1, New World Sport App, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League, SuperSport PSL
Argentina	17:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	00:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	07:00	Stan Sport
Austria	21:00	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 3
Azerbaijan	00:00	Ictimai TV
Belgium	21:00	Pickx+ Sports 3, Pickx+ Sports 3
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:00	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	17:00	Claro TV+, Max, Sky+, TNT, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	22:00	Ring, Voyo
Canada	15:00	DAZN Canada
Chile	17:00	Disney+
Colombia	15:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	21:00	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	22:00	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	21:00	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	21:00	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	22:00	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3, V Sport Fotbool
France	21:00	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2, New World TV
Georgia	00:00	Silk Sport 1
Germany	21:00	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	22:00	COSMOTE Sport 5
Haiti	15:00	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong Kong	04:00	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Hungary	21:00	RTL+, Sport 2
Iceland	20:00	Viaplay
India	01:30	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 1
Indonesia	03:00	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	22:00	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	21:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254
Japan	05:00	Wowow Cinema
Kazakhstan	02:00	Kazakhstan TV
Kosovo	21:00	ART Motion Sport 1, ART Motion Sport 2, ART Sport 3
Macao	04:00	TDM TV
Malaysia	04:00	beIN Connect
Malta	21:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	14:00	Caliente TV App, Caliente TV
Myanmar	02:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Netherlands	21:00	Ziggo Sport 3
New Zealand	09:00	DAZN New Zealand, TVWan
Nigeria	21:00	Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
North Central America	—	ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
Norway	21:00	TV2 Play
Pakistan	01:00	Tapmad
Peru	15:00	Disney+
Philippines	04:00	beIN Connect
Poland	21:00	Canal+ Extra 1, Canal+ Sport Online
Portugal	20:00	Sport TV5
Romania	22:00	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	23:00	Okko Sport
Serbia	21:00	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	21:00	Voyo
Slovenia	21:00	SportKlub 1
South Africa	22:00	SuperSport PSL
South America	—	ESPN 2 South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	05:00	SPOTV Prime+
Spain	21:00	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	21:00	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	21:00	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	23:00	Tabii, TRT 1
Ukraine	22:00	MEGOGO Futbol 3
United Kingdom	20:00	beIN Sports MENA English 2, Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 3, Virgin Media More
Uruguay	17:00	Disney+
Usa	15:00	Paramount+, TUDN, UniMas, Univision
Venezuela	16:00	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	03:00	ON Plus, TV 360
International	20:00	Disney+


	Benfica		Barcelona

	1	X	2
	3.6	4.33	1.83	Watch
	3.6	4.1	1.85
	3.8	4.25	1.85	Watch
	3.9	4.3	1.85
	3.91	4.3	1.83	Watch
	3.9	4	1.8
	4.07	4.43	1.79
	3.8	4.25	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↑ (3.52)	4.25 ↑ (4.15)	1.83 ↓ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Champions League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: Telemundo (KUTU-Tulsa, OK)

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
25.1%

Draw
22.6%

Barcelona
52.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.3%

23.1%

49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

23.4%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Barcelona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.1%	17.9%	74%

Benfica - Barcelona Predictions

Users Predictions: 117 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 9 - 7.7%). Barcelona will win (votes: 89 - 76.1%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 16.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 68.4% – 83.8%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 44. Araujo T. 4. Silva A. 30. Otamendi N. (C) 3. Carreras A. 8. Aursnes F. 18. Barreiro L. 10. Kokcu O. 17. Akturkoglu K. 14. Pavlidis V. 21. Schjelderup A.	25. Szczesny W. (G) 23. Kounde J. 2. Cubarsi P. 5. Martinez I. 3. Balde A. 20. Olmo D. 21. de Jong F. (C) 8. Pedri 19. Yamal L. 9. Lewandowski R. 11. Raphinha
Substitutes
81. Bajrami A. 19. Belotti A. 9. Cabral A. 26. Dahl S. 79. Felix H. 60. Felix N. 25. Prestianni G. 86. Prioste D. 84. Rego J. 85. Sanches R. 71. Santos L. 24. Soares S. (G)	4. Araujo R. 17. Casado M. 10. Fati A. 32. Fort H. 24. Garcia E. 31. Kochen D. (G) 16. Lopez F. 35. Martin G. 13. Pena I. (G) 14. Torre P. 7. Torres F. 18. Victor P.
Coaches
Lage B.	Flick H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Cubarsi P. 🟥,
28', Olmo D. ↓, Araujo R. ↑,
45', Barreiro L. 🟨,
45+2', Martinez I. 🟨,
45+5', Silva A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Yamal L. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
57', Araujo T. ↓, Dahl S. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Raphinha ⚽,
70', Schjelderup A. ↓, Rego J. ↑,
70', Barreiro L. ↓, Belotti A. ↑,
73', Carreras A. 🟨,
79', Lewandowski R. ↓, Martin G. ↑,
79', de Jong F. ↓, Casado M. ↑,
84', Kokcu O. ↓, Sanches R. ↑,
84', Pavlidis V. ↓, Cabral A. ↑,
90+1', Rego J. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Both teams in the last matches got series of victories.

Benfica could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Barcelona will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Inactive) Di Maria A. (Muscle Injury) Gouveia T. (Shoulder Injury) Manu (Knee Injury) Sanches R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Barcelona: Bernal M. (Knee Injury) Christensen A. (Calf Injury) ter Stegen M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Benfica: Florentino (Muscle Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Benfica won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:7 (average 1.4:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Benfica won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:7 (average 2.3:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
Taça de Portugal
26.02.25	Benfica - Braga	1:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
22.02.25	Benfica - Boavista	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.25	Benfica - Monaco	3:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
15.02.25	Santa Clara - Benfica	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.02.25	Monaco - Benfica	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWTWW
- FC Barcelona
Spanish LaLiga
02.03.25	Barcelona - Real Sociedad	4:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
25.02.25	Barcelona - Atlético Madrid	4:4 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
22.02.25	Las Palmas - Barcelona	0:2 ✺
17.02.25	Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Sevilla - Barcelona	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
21.01.25	Benfica - Barcelona	4:5
23.11.21	Barcelona - Benfica	0:0
29.09.21	Benfica - Barcelona	3:0
05.12.12	Barcelona - Benfica	0:0
02.10.12	Benfica - Barcelona	0:2

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