Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 12 March 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys (Barcelona)

Referee: Makkelie D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
Germany	Amazon Prime Video
Italy	Canale 5, Sky Sport, Sky Sport Uno
Portugal	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Barcelona		Napoli

	1	X	2
	1.75	4	4.2
	1.8	3.9	4.1
	1.8	4	4.35	Watch
	1.8	4.13	4.34
	1.8	4.13	4.32
	1.75	4	4.2
	1.84	4.09	4.42
	1.77	3.95	4.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.76)	4.03 ↑ (3.94)	4.29 ↓ (4.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Network on TV: Univision, TUDN

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona
53.7%

Draw
23.9%

Napoli
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

24.2%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

23.8%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.2%	10.9%	8.9%

Barcelona - Napoli Predictions

Users Predictions: Barcelona will win (81 of 101 users predict this - 80.2%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.43% – 87.97%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. ter Stegen M. (C) 23. Kounde J. 4. Araujo R. 33. Cubarsi P. 2. Cancelo J. 32. Lopez F. 15. Christensen A. 22. Gundogan I. 27. Yamal L. 9. Lewandowski R. 11. Raphinha	1. Meret A. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 13. Rrahmani A. 5. Juan Jesus 6. Rui M. 99. Anguissa F. 68. Lobotka S. 8. Traore H. J. 21. Politano M. 9. Osimhen V. 77. Kvaratskhelia K.
Substitutes
26. Astralaga A. (G) 30. Casado M. 39. Fort H. 38. Guiu M. 35. Hernandez U. 14. Joao Felix 5. Martinez I. 13. Pena I. (G) 20. Roberto S. 18. Romeu O. 19. Vitor Roque	24. Cajuste J. 14. Contini N. (G) 95. Gollini P. (G) 29. Lindstrom J. 30. Mazzocchi P. 3. Natan 26. Ngonge C. 17. Olivera M. 55. Ostigard L. 81. Raspadori G. 18. Simeone G.
Coaches
Xavi	Calzona F.

Preview

2nd leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium. 1st leg result: 1-1.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 2.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Napoli could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Barcelona is a favorite.

There will not play in Barcelona: Balde A. (Muscle Injury) Gavi (Knee Injury) Pedri (Injury) de Jong F. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Napoli: Zielinski P. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Barcelona: Alonso M. (Back Injury) Torres F. (Knee Injury)

Last 9 head-to-head matches Barcelona won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Barcelona won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Barcelona
Spanish LaLiga
08.03.24	Barcelona - Mallorca	1:0 ✺
03.03.24	Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona	0:0 ✺
24.02.24	Barcelona - Getafe	4:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.02.24	Napoli - Barcelona	1:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
17.02.24	Celta de Vigo - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTWTW
- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
08.03.24	Napoli - Torino	1:1 ✺
03.03.24	Napoli - Juventus	2:1 ✺
28.02.24	Sassuolo - Napoli	1:6 ✺
25.02.24	Cagliari - Napoli	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.02.24	Napoli - Barcelona	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
21.02.24	Napoli - Barcelona	1:1
UEFA Europa League
24.02.22	Napoli - Barcelona	2:4
17.02.22	Barcelona - Napoli	1:1
UEFA Champions League
08.08.20	Barcelona - Napoli	3:1
25.02.20	Napoli - Barcelona	1:1
Club Friendly
10.08.19	Barcelona - Napoli	4:0
07.08.19	Napoli - Barcelona	1:2

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