Match Info

EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - PLAY OFFS - 1/8-FINALS

Date: 21 February 2024, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Belgium	RTL
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	BTV Action
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu, Sub
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Netherlands	RTL 7
Portugal	Eleven Sports 2
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Napoli		Barcelona

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.6	2.3
	2.8	3.5	2.4
	2.95	3.5	2.42	Watch
	3.05	3.45	2.39
	3.05	3.55	2.39
	2.88	3.4	2.3
	3.02	3.65	2.44
	2.95	3.6	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.6)	3.53 ↓ (3.58)	2.38 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
32.5%

Draw
27.2%

Barcelona
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

26.6%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

26.1%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Barcelona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.2%	25%	59.8%

Napoli - Barcelona Predictions

Users Predictions: 92 users predict this event. Napoli will win (votes: 14 - 15.2%). Barcelona will win (votes: 55 - 59.8%). It will Tie (votes: 23 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 49.8% – 69.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Meret A. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 13. Rrahmani A. 5. Juan Jesus 17. Olivera M. 99. Anguissa F. 68. Lobotka S. 24. Cajuste J. 21. Politano M. 9. Osimhen V. 77. Kvaratskhelia K.	1. ter Stegen M. (C) 23. Kounde J. 4. Araujo R. 5. Martinez I. 2. Cancelo J. 21. de Jong F. 15. Christensen A. 22. Gundogan I. 27. Yamal L. 9. Lewandowski R. 8. Pedri
Substitutes
14. Contini N. (G) 95. Gollini P. (G) 29. Lindstrom J. 30. Mazzocchi P. 3. Natan 55. Ostigard L. 81. Raspadori G. 6. Rui M. 18. Simeone G. 8. Traore H. J.	26. Astralaga A. (G) 30. Casado M. 33. Cubarsi P. 39. Fort H. 38. Guiu M. 14. Joao Felix 32. Lopez F. 13. Pena I. (G) 11. Raphinha 20. Roberto S. 18. Romeu O. 19. Vitor Roque
Coaches
Calzona F.	Xavi

Preview

1st leg.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Napoli won 0.

Recent matches Napoli is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Barcelona is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Napoli: Zielinski P. (Inactive)

There will not play in Barcelona: Alonso M. (Back Injury) Balde A. (Muscle Injury) Gavi (Knee Injury) Torres F. (Knee Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Napoli won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Napoli won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
17.02.24	Napoli - Genoa	1:1 ✺
11.02.24	Milan - Napoli	1:0 ✺
04.02.24	Napoli - Verona	2:1 ✺
28.01.24	Lazio - Napoli	0:0 ✺
Italian Super Cup
22.01.24	Napoli - Inter Milan	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TLWTL
- FC Barcelona
Spanish LaLiga
17.02.24	Celta de Vigo - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
11.02.24	Barcelona - Granada	3:3 ✺
03.02.24	Deportivo Alavés - Barcelona	1:3 ✺
31.01.24	Barcelona - Osasuna	1:0 ✺
27.01.24	Barcelona - Villarreal	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
24.02.22	Napoli - Barcelona	2:4
17.02.22	Barcelona - Napoli	1:1
UEFA Champions League
08.08.20	Barcelona - Napoli	3:1
25.02.20	Napoli - Barcelona	1:1
Club Friendly
10.08.19	Barcelona - Napoli	4:0
07.08.19	Napoli - Barcelona	1:2
06.08.14	Napoli - Barcelona	1:0

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