Match Info

Serie B - Round 18

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Referee: Zufferli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Slovenia	Sport TV1
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox
World	Onefootball


	Bari		Avellino

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.95	3.2	Watch
	2.37	3	3.1
	2.48	2.92	2.98	Watch
	2.52	3.02	2.98	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.9
	2.52	2.96	3.01	Watch
	2.57	2.9	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.34)	2.95 ↓ (3.11)	3.02 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bari
37.6%

Draw
31.6%

Avellino
30.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

30%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

29%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Avellino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	62.5%	12.5%

Bari - Avellino Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 4 - 25%). Avellino will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 38.8% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Avellino (2.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Avellino (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cerofolini M. (G) 4. Castrovilli G. 25. Pucino R. (C) 43. Nikolaou D. 24. Dickmann L. 27. Braunoder M. 29. Verreth M. 13. Meroni A. 18. Maggiore G. 30. Mane M. 9. Gytkjaer C.	30. Daffara G. (G) 56. Enrici P. 44. Simic L. 78. Milani A. 2. Missori F. 6. Palmiero L. (C) 39. Besaggio M. 29. Cancellotti T. 24. Sounas D. 14. Biasci T. 7. Tutino G.
Substitutes
16. Antonucci M. 10. Bellomo N. 3. Burgio R. 99. Cerri L. 32. Colangiuli V. 15. Kassama S. 11. Moncini G. 8. Pagano R. 21. Partipilo A. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 17. Rao E. 23. Vicari F.	23. Cagnano A. 8. Gyabuaa M. 1. Iannarilli A. (G) 32. Lescano F. 79. Manzi C. 20. Palumbo M. 33. Panico G. 9. Patierno C. 10. Russo R.
Coaches
Vivarini V.	Biancolino R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Cancellotti T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Missori F. 🟨,
54', 1 - 0, Dickmann L. ⚽, Maggiore G. (A),
59', Milani A. ↓, Russo R. ↑,
59', Tutino G. ↓, Patierno C. ↑,
66', Braunoder M. 🟨,
68', 1 - 1, Biasci T. ⚽,
69', Palmiero L. ↓, Palumbo M. ↑,
73', Mane M. ↓, Antonucci M. ↑,
74', Maggiore G. ↓, Rao E. ↑,
85', Verreth M. ↓, Bellomo N. ↑,
85', Meroni A. ↓, Kassama S. ↑,
87', Biasci T. ↓, Lescano F. ↑,
88', Gytkjaer C. ↓, Moncini G. ↑,
88', Pucino R. 🟨,
90+5', Patierno C. 🟨,
90+5', Cerofolini M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari won 3.

Bari is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Avellino has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bari may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Bari could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Bari: Antonucci M. (Muscle Injury) Castrovilli G. (Muscle Injury) Darboe E. (Thigh Injury) Dorval M. (International duty)

There will not play in Avellino: Armellino M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) D'Andrea L. (Knee Injury) De Cristofaro A. (Knee Injury) Favilli A. (Tendon Injury) Fontanarosa A. (Yellow Cards) Insigne R. (Inactive) Kumi J. (Injury) Marchisano M. (Inactive) Pane P. (Inactive) Rigione M. (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Bari won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:21. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bari won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:9. (average 2.1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
19.12.25	Bari - Catanzaro	1:2 ✺
13.12.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Bari	0:0 ✺
08.12.25	Bari - Pescara	1:1 ✺
04.12.25	Juve Stabia - Bari	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Empoli - Bari	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTTTL
- US Avellino
Italian Serie B
20.12.25	Avellino - Palermo	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Catanzaro - Avellino	1:0 ✺
08.12.25	Avellino - Venezia	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Avellino	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Avellino - Empoli	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
10.04.22	Bari - Avellino	1:0
06.12.21	Avellino - Bari	1:1
10.04.21	Avellino - Bari	1:0
20.12.20	Bari - Avellino	4:1
01.03.20	Bari - Avellino	2:1
20.10.19	Avellino - Bari	2:2
Coppa Italia Serie C
18.08.19	Avellino - Bari	1:0

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