Match Info

Serie B - Round 17

Date: 19 December 2025, Friday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Referee: Rapuano A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Switzerland	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV
World	Onefootball


	Bari		Catanzaro

	1	X	2
	3.05	2.95	2.4	Watch
	2.98	2.98	2.48	Watch
	3.19	3.04	2.63
	2.99	3	2.52	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.5
	2.94	2.94	2.55	Watch
	3.14	2.9	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↑ (2.8)	2.96 ↓ (3.1)	2.51 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bari
31%

Draw
31.7%

Catanzaro
37.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

30.1%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

29.5%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Catanzaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.1%	42.1%	36.8%

Bari - Catanzaro Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). Catanzaro will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 42.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19.9% – 64.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Catanzaro (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Bari (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Bari (2.15) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Catanzaro (3.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Bari (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Catanzaro (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cerofolini M. (C) 15. Kassama S. 25. Pucino R. 43. Nikolaou D. 24. Dickmann L. 27. Braunoder M. 29. Verreth M. 3. Burgio R. 18. Maggiore G. 17. Rao E. 9. Gytkjaer C.	22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 84. Cassandro T. 4. Matias Antonini 23. Brighenti N. 27. Favasuli C. 20. Pontisso S. 10. Petriccione J. 77. D'Alessandro M. 9. Iemmello P. (C) 80. Cisse A. 8. Pittarello F.
Substitutes
10. Bellomo N. 99. Cerri L. 32. Colangiuli V. 30. Mane M. 76. Mavraj I. 13. Meroni A. 11. Moncini G. 8. Pagano R. 21. Partipilo A. 20. Pereiro G. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 23. Vicari F.	30. Alesi G. 5. Bashi E. 18. Bettella D. 45. Buso N. 17. Di Chiara G. 62. Frosinini R. 14. Liberali M. 1. Marietta C. (G) 19. Nuamah P. 7. Pandolfi L. 32. Rispoli F. 26. Verrengia B.
Coaches
Vivarini V.	Aquilani A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Pontisso S. ⚽, Iemmello P. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gytkjaer C. ↓, Moncini G. ↑,
46', Burgio R. ↓, Mane M. ↑,
46', Favasuli C. 🟨,
49', 0 - 2, Matias Antonini ⚽, Petriccione J. (A),
60', Favasuli C. ↓, Frosinini R. ↑,
62', Rao E. ↓, Bellomo N. ↑,
71', D'Alessandro M. ↓, Nuamah P. ↑,
71', Cisse A. ↓, Liberali M. ↑,
71', Petriccione J. ↓, Rispoli F. ↑,
77', Nikolaou D. 🟨,
80', Kassama S. ↓, Cerri L. ↑,
81', Pontisso S. ↓, Alesi G. ↑,
82', Brighenti N. 🟨,
86', Rispoli F. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 2, Bellomo N. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari won 1.

Bari is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Catanzaro is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Bari: Bellomo N. (Inactive) Castrovilli G. (Inactive) Cerri L. (Inactive) Darboe E. (Thigh Injury) Dorval M. (International duty) Vicari F. (Inactive)

There will not play in Catanzaro: Buglio D. (Inactive) Di Francesco F. (Inactive) Pompetti M. (Shin Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Bari won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Bari won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 1.6:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
13.12.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Bari	0:0 ✺
08.12.25	Bari - Pescara	1:1 ✺
04.12.25	Juve Stabia - Bari	0:0 ✺
29.11.25	Empoli - Bari	5:0 ✺
22.11.25	Bari - Frosinone	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TTTLL
- US Catanzaro
Italian Serie B
13.12.25	Catanzaro - Avellino	1:0 ✺
08.12.25	Modena - Catanzaro	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Catanzaro - Virtus Entella	3:2 ✺
21.11.25	Catanzaro - Pescara	3:3 ✺
08.11.25	Empoli - Catanzaro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
06.04.25	Catanzaro - Bari	3:3
18.10.24	Bari - Catanzaro	1:1
27.02.24	Catanzaro - Bari	2:0
24.09.23	Bari - Catanzaro	2:2
Italian Serie C Group C
13.03.22	Catanzaro - Bari	1:2
30.10.21	Bari - Catanzaro	2:1
21.03.21	Catanzaro - Bari	2:0

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