Match Info

Serie B - Round 14

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli)

Referee: Maresca F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 SPORT Israel
Italy	DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus
World	Onefootball


	Empoli		Bari

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.05	3.75	Watch
	2.1	3.05	3.6	Watch
	2.19	3.07	4.04
	2.02	3.33	3.64	Watch
	2.14	3.04	3.69	Watch
	2.08	3	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (2.02)	3.09 ↓ (3.33)	3.79 ↑ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
44.8%

Draw
30.4%

Bari
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

28.1%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

28.7%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	33.3%	8.3%

Empoli - Bari Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Empoli will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Bari will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Empoli: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Empoli (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Fulignati A. (G) 34. Guarino G. 5. Obaretin N. 20. Lovato M. (C) 27. Moruzzi B. 14. Yepes G. 6. Degli Innocenti D. 7. Elia S. 70. Saporiti E. 19. Nasti M. 11. Shpendi S.	31. Cerofolini M. (G) 25. Pucino R. 23. Vicari F. (C) 43. Nikolaou D. 24. Dickmann L. 4. Castrovilli G. 29. Verreth M. 8. Pagano R. 93. Dorval M. 11. Moncini G. 27. Braunoder M.
Substitutes
99. Bianchi F. 79. Carboni F. 15. Ceesay J. 18. Ghion A. 32. Haas N. 10. Ilie R. 28. Indragoli G. 90. Konate I. 9. Pellegri P. 1. Perisan S. (G) 77. Popov B. 29. Tosto L.	16. Antonucci M. 10. Bellomo N. 3. Burgio R. 99. Cerri L. 32. Colangiuli V. 9. Gytkjaer C. 15. Kassama S. 13. Meroni A. 21. Partipilo A. 20. Pereiro G. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 17. Rao E.
Coaches
Dionisi A.	Caserta F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', Dickmann L. 🟨,
39', Vicari F. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Guarino G. ⚽, Degli Innocenti D. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 0)
52', 2 - 0, Shpendi S. ⚽, Moruzzi B. (A),
61', Castrovilli G. ↓, Antonucci M. ↑,
61', Pagano R. ↓, Rao E. ↑,
62', Shpendi S. ↓, Ceesay J. ↑,
63', Saporiti E. ↓, Ilie R. ↑,
63', Nasti M. ↓, Pellegri P. ↑,
64', Ceesay J. 🟨,
66', 3 - 0, Yepes G. ⚽, Pellegri P. (A),
71', Elia S. ↓, Carboni F. ↑,
76', Pucino R. ↓, Gytkjaer C. ↑,
76', Verreth M. ↓, Colangiuli V. ↑,
83', Yepes G. ↓, Ghion A. ↑,
89', 4 - 0, Pellegri P. ⚽, Degli Innocenti D. (A),
90', Moncini G. ↓, Partipilo A. ↑,
90+1', 5 - 0, Ceesay J. ⚽, Pellegri P. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Empoli won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Empoli will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Empoli: Ebuehi T. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bari: Darboe E. (Injury) Pereiro G. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Empoli won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Empoli won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Italian Serie B
22.11.25	Avellino - Empoli	0:3 ✺
08.11.25	Empoli - Catanzaro	1:0 ✺
01.11.25	Virtus Entella - Empoli	1:0 ✺
28.10.25	Empoli - Sampdoria	1:1 ✺
24.10.25	Modena - Empoli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLTL
- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
22.11.25	Bari - Frosinone	2:3 ✺
07.11.25	Spezia - Bari	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	Bari - Cesena	1:0 ✺
26.10.25	Bari - Mantova	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Reggiana - Bari	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
27.01.18	Bari - Empoli	0:4
03.09.17	Empoli - Bari	3:2
06.04.14	Bari - Empoli	3:0
01.11.13	Empoli - Bari	1:1
24.03.13	Empoli - Bari	0:1
30.10.12	Bari - Empoli	2:3
17.03.12	Empoli - Bari	N/A

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