Match Info

Serie B - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Nicola Ceravolo (Catanzaro)

Referee: Marinelli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	LAB Channel


	Catanzaro		Avellino

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.3	4.2	Watch
	1.92	3.15	3.95	Watch
	1.97	3.34	4.49
	1.93	3.23	4.23	Watch
	1.91	3.1	4
	1.95	3.4	4.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.18)	3.25 ↑ (3.03)	4.21 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Catanzaro
48.8%

Draw
28.9%

Avellino
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

30.8%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

31.8%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Catanzaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Catanzaro's performance.

Avellino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Catanzaro than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.2%	31.2%	12.5%

Catanzaro - Avellino Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Catanzaro will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). Avellino will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Catanzaro: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Avellino (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Avellino (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pigliacelli M. (G) 84. Cassandro T. 4. Matias Antonini 23. Brighenti N. (C) 27. Favasuli C. 20. Pontisso S. 10. Petriccione J. 94. Di Francesco F. 14. Liberali M. 30. Alesi G. 8. Pittarello F.	1. Iannarilli A. (G) 29. Cancellotti T. 4. Izzo A. 56. Enrici P. 2. Missori F. 24. Sounas D. 6. Palmiero L. 39. Besaggio M. 20. Palumbo M. 9. Patierno C. (C) 10. Russo R.
Substitutes
5. Bashi E. 77. D'Alessandro M. 6. Fellipe Jack 62. Frosinini R. 9. Iemmello P. 39. Koffi N. 1. Marietta C. (G) 19. Nuamah P. 28. Oudin R. 21. Pompetti M. 32. Rispoli F. 26. Verrengia B.	21. Armellino M. 14. Biasci T. 30. Daffara G. (G) 11. D'Andrea L. 63. Fontanarosa A. 94. Insigne R. 16. Kumi J. 27. Le Borgne A. 8. Pandolfi L. 53. Sassi J. (G) 18. Sgarbi L. 7. Tutino G.
Coaches
Aquilani A.	Ballardini D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Cancellotti T. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Pontisso S. ⚽, Petriccione J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', Besaggio M. ↓, Pandolfi L. ↑,
54', Patierno C. ↓, Biasci T. ↑,
60', Sounas D. ↓, Insigne R. ↑,
69', Di Francesco F. ↓, Rispoli F. ↑,
80', Pontisso S. ↓, Pompetti M. ↑,
80', Liberali M. ↓, Frosinini R. ↑,
80', Alesi G. ↓, Iemmello P. ↑,
80', Palmiero L. ↓, D'Andrea L. ↑,
80', Cancellotti T. ↓, Le Borgne A. ↑,
83', 2 - 0, Cassandro T. ⚽, Favasuli C. (A),
90+3', 3 - 0, Iemmello P. (Penalty Awarded),
90+4', Petriccione J. ↓, Nuamah P. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 3.

Catanzaro has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Avellino is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Catanzaro will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Catanzaro: Cisse A. (Muscle Injury) Iemmello P. (Injury)

There will not play in Avellino: Favilli A. (Hamstring Injury) Milani A. (Heel Injury) Reale F. (Muscle Injury) Sala M. (Ankle Injury) Simic L. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Catanzaro won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:13. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Catanzaro won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:7. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Avellino	6	3	1	2	11:7	4	10
18	Catanzaro	5	1	0	4	5:9	-4	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Catanzaro
Italian Serie B
08.05.26	Catanzaro - Bari	2:3 ✺
01.05.26	Palermo - Catanzaro	3:2 ✺
25.04.26	Catanzaro - Spezia	4:2 ✺
18.04.26	Juve Stabia - Catanzaro	1:1 ✺
14.04.26	Catanzaro - Modena	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWTT
- US Avellino
Italian Serie B
08.05.26	Avellino - Modena	1:0 ✺
01.05.26	Empoli - Avellino	1:0 ✺
24.04.26	Avellino - Bari	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Mantova - Avellino	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Avellino - Catanzaro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
11.04.26	Avellino - Catanzaro	1:1
13.12.25	Catanzaro - Avellino	1:0
Italian Serie C Group C
04.03.23	Catanzaro - Avellino	4:1
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.11.22	Catanzaro - Avellino	4:3 penalties
Italian Serie C Group C
30.10.22	Avellino - Catanzaro	2:2
06.02.22	Catanzaro - Avellino	2:0
30.09.21	Avellino - Catanzaro	0:0

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