Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 31

Date: 1 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Referee: Piccinini M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Bari		Benevento

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.2	3.8	Watch
	2	3.1	4
	2.05	2.95	4.1	Watch
	2.08	3.12	4.38
	1.85	3.25	4.5
	2.07	3.22	3.8	Watch
	2.06	3.1	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.87)	3.13 ↓ (3.38)	4.06 ↓ (4.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bari
46.7%

Draw
30.1%

Benevento
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.2%

27.7%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

27.4%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Benevento has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
29.4%	47.1%	23.5%

Bari - Benevento Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Benevento will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 47.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Bari has the most likely position - 3 (38.77%), project points - 62, currently - 50, not chance of relegated, a good chance of prom. playoffs (94%), a chance of promoted (27%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Benevento has the most likely position - 19 (22.09%), project points - 39, currently - 29, a good chance of relegated (71%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has quality 32, importance 49, match rating 41. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Bari is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Benevento is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Bari is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Bari won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Bari won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
19.03.23	Ternana - Bari	1:0 ✺
11.03.23	Bari - Frosinone	0:0 ✺
05.03.23	Ascoli - Bari	0:1 ✺
01.03.23	Bari - Venezia	1:0 ✺
25.02.23	Brescia - Bari	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LTWWW
- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
18.03.23	Pisa - Benevento	2:0 ✺
11.03.23	Benevento - Como	0:0 ✺
05.03.23	Ternana - Benevento	2:2 ✺
01.03.23	Benevento - Südtirol-Alto Adige	0:2 ✺
26.02.23	Ascoli - Benevento	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
05.11.22	Benevento - Bari	1:1
24.02.17	Benevento - Bari	3:4
24.09.16	Bari - Benevento	0:4

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