Match Info

Serie B - Round 11

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Referee: Fourneau F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, Destination Calcio, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Switzerland	Blue Sport 7, Blue Sport 7
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox
World	Onefootball


	Bari		Cesena

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.85	2.4	Watch
	3.1	2.88	2.4	Watch
	2.59	3.21	2.59	Watch
	3.12	2.93	2.47	Watch
	3	3	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.59)	2.97 ↓ (3.21)	2.47 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bari
31%

Draw
31.3%

Cesena
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

28.7%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.9%

28.5%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Cesena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cesena than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	45.5%	27.3%

Bari - Cesena Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Cesena will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cerofolini M. (G) 25. Pucino R. (C) 13. Meroni A. 43. Nikolaou D. 24. Dickmann L. 18. Maggiore G. 5. Darboe E. 93. Dorval M. 4. Castrovilli G. 16. Antonucci M. 11. Moncini G.	33. Klinsmann J. (G) 15. Ciofi A. (C) 19. Zaro G. 24. Mangraviti M. 11. Ciervo R. 14. Berti T. 4. Castagnetti M. 70. Francesconi M. 99. Frabotta G. 7. Blesa J. 9. Shpendi C.
Substitutes
10. Bellomo N. 27. Braunoder M. 3. Burgio R. 99. Cerri L. 9. Gytkjaer C. 76. Mavraj I. 8. Pagano R. 21. Partipilo A. 20. Pereiro G. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 17. Rao E. 29. Verreth M.	17. Adamo E. 16. Amoran P. 6. Arrigoni T. 29. Balde S. 10. Bastoni S. 43. Bertaccini F. 13. Celia R. 40. Ferretti L. (G) 39. Fontana N. (G) 18. Guidi M. 32. Olivieri M. 26. Piacentini M.
Coaches
Caserta F.	Mignani M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Darboe E. ↓, Verreth M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Maggiore G. ↓, Braunoder M. ↑,
58', Antonucci M. ↓, Gytkjaer C. ↑,
58', Frabotta G. ↓, Adamo E. ↑,
64', Shpendi C. ↓, Balde S. ↑,
65', Castagnetti M. ↓, Bastoni S. ↑,
69', Ciervo R. 🟨,
72', Meroni A. 🟨,
78', Moncini G. ↓, Cerri L. ↑,
78', Castrovilli G. ↓, Partipilo A. ↑,
80', 1 - 0, Gytkjaer C. ⚽, Dickmann L. (A),
81', Ciervo R. ↓, Celia R. ↑,
81', Berti T. ↓, Olivieri M. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Cesena may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Bari: Sibilli G. (Inactive) Vicari F. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Cesena: Bisoli D. (Inactive) Siano A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Bari: Antonucci M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Cesena: Magni V. (Inactive)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Bari won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:8. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bari won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 1.3:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Bari - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 35.63%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
26.10.25	Bari - Mantova	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Reggiana - Bari	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Bari - Padova	2:1 ✺
30.09.25	Virtus Entella - Bari	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Bari - Sampdoria	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WLWTT
- AC Cesena
Italian Serie B
28.10.25	Cesena - Carrarese	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Cesena	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Spezia - Cesena	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Cesena - Reggiana	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Frosinone - Cesena	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
25.01.25	Cesena - Bari	1:1
07.12.24	Bari - Cesena	1:0
20.01.18	Cesena - Bari	1:1
28.08.17	Bari - Cesena	3:0
11.02.17	Cesena - Bari	1:1
16.09.16	Bari - Cesena	2:1
04.04.16	Bari - Cesena	0:0

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