Match Info

Serie B - Round 7

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Referee: Manganiello G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Bari		Padova

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	3	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.3
	2.45	3	2.92
	2.54	3.06	3.19
	9.48	3.92	1.41	Watch
	2.59	3.05	3.05	Watch
	2.21	3.05	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.42 ↑ (2.45)	3.17 ↑ (3)	2.9 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bari
30.6%

Draw
33.1%

Padova
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

30.9%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

30.5%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bari's form might have worsened.

Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Bari, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	70%	10%

Bari - Padova Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Padova will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Bari (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Bari (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Bari (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cerofolini M. (G) 13. Meroni A. 43. Nikolaou D. 3. Burgio R. 24. Dickmann L. 8. Pagano R. 29. Verreth M. 4. Castrovilli G. 16. Antonucci M. 17. Rao E. 9. Gytkjaer C.	14. Fortin M. (G) 72. Faedo C. 5. Perrotta M. 32. Sgarbi F. 17. Capelli A. 7. Varas K. 8. Fusi P. 6. Crisetig L. 3. Barreca A. 15. Lasagna K. 20. Bortolussi M.
Substitutes
10. Bellomo N. 27. Braunoder M. 99. Cerri L. 5. Darboe E. 93. Dorval M. 15. Kassama S. 18. Maggiore G. 11. Moncini G. 21. Partipilo A. 20. Pereiro G. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 25. Pucino R.	4. Belli F. 13. Boi A. 92. Buonaiuto C. 23. Di Maggio L. 30. Favale G. 18. Ghiglione P. 44. Harder J. 1. Mouquet L. (G) 11. Seghetti A. 41. Silva J. 22. Sorrentino A. (G) 55. Villa L.
Coaches
Caserta F.	Andreoletti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Nikolaou D. ↓, Kassama S. ↑,
28', Rao E. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Burgio R. ↓, Dorval M. ↑,
46', Gytkjaer C. ↓, Moncini G. ↑,
50', 0 - 1, Bortolussi M. ⚽, Capelli A. (A),
56', Castrovilli G. 🟨,
64', Antonucci M. ↓, Cerri L. ↑,
69', Capelli A. 🟥,
71', 1 - 1, Moncini G. (Pen),
73', Bortolussi M. ↓, Ghiglione P. ↑,
73', Crisetig L. ↓, Harder J. ↑,
77', Rao E. ↓, Pereiro G. ↑,
81', Fusi P. ↓, Di Maggio L. ↑,
81', Barreca A. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Cerri L. ⚽,
85', Faedo C. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari won 3.

Bari has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Padova has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Padova may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bari could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Bari: Vicari F. (Injury)

There will not play in Padova: Bacci J. (Inactive) Baselli D. (Inactive) Boi A. (Inactive) Papu Gomez (Suspended) Pastina C. (Inactive)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Bari won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.8:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bari won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Bari - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.78%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
30.09.25	Virtus Entella - Bari	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Bari - Sampdoria	1:1 ✺
19.09.25	Palermo - Bari	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Modena - Bari	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Bari - Monza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TTLLT
- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie B
30.09.25	Padova - Avellino	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Monza - Padova	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Padova - Virtus Entella	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Padova - Frosinone	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Carrarese - Padova	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Coppa Italia
31.07.22	Bari - Padova	3:0
Italian Serie B
26.04.14	Padova - Bari	1:2
23.11.13	Bari - Padova	2:2
19.03.13	Bari - Padova	3:0
27.10.12	Padova - Bari	1:1
31.01.12	Bari - Padova	N/A

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