Match Info

Serie B - Round 9

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Referee: Massimi L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Bari		Mantova

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.05	3.5	Watch
	2.18	3.15	3.25	Watch
	2.08	3.45	3.85
	1.96	3.18	3.84	Watch
	2.23	3.18	3.29	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.96)	3.2 ↑ (3.18)	3.55 ↓ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Bari
44.2%

Draw
29.3%

Mantova
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

29%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

24.1%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Mantova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bari than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bari that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
41.7%	58.3%	0%

Bari - Mantova Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cerofolini M. (G) 24. Dickmann L. 13. Meroni A. 25. Pucino R. (C) 16. Antonucci M. 4. Castrovilli G. 93. Dorval M. 15. Kassama S. 18. Maggiore G. 29. Verreth M. 11. Moncini G.	1. Festa M. (C) 96. Maggioni T. 27. Castellini A. 29. Cella S. 6. Bani C. 36. Paoletti F. 8. Artioli F. 30. Bragantini D. 21. Trimboli S. 19. Ruocco F. 99. Bonfanti N.
Substitutes
10. Bellomo N. 27. Braunoder M. 3. Burgio R. 99. Cerri L. 5. Darboe E. 9. Gytkjaer C. 76. Mavraj I. 8. Pagano R. 21. Partipilo A. 20. Pereiro G. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 17. Rao E.	22. Andrenacci L. (G) 28. Caprini M. 18. Falletti C. 20. Fedel G. 11. Fiori A. 14. Galuppini F. 37. Majer Z. 9. Mancuso L. 23. Marras T. 7. Mensah D. 53. Pittino T. 10. Wieser D.
Coaches
Caserta F.	Possanzini D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Paoletti F. 🟨,
22', Pucino R. 🟨,
35', Paoletti F. ↓, Wieser D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, Moncini G. ⚽,
61', Trimboli S. 🟨,
64', Bonfanti N. ↓, Mancuso L. ↑,
64', Artioli F. ↓, Falletti C. ↑,
65', Verreth M. ↓, Darboe E. ↑,
65', Castrovilli G. ↓, Pagano R. ↑,
76', Wieser D. 🟨,
79', Bragantini D. ↓, Galuppini F. ↑,
79', Ruocco F. ↓, Caprini M. ↑,
80', Moncini G. ↓, Gytkjaer C. ↑,
80', Meroni A. ↓, Mavraj I. ↑,
84', Caprini M. 🟨,
85', Galuppini F. 🟨,
89', Antonucci M. ↓, Braunoder M. ↑,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Bari has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mantova is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Bari will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Bari: Bellomo N. (Inactive) Nikolaou D. (Injury) Nikolaou D. (Red Card) Sibilli G. (Inactive) Vicari F. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Mantova: Castellini A. (Injury) Paoletti F. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Bari won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Bari won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
18.10.25	Reggiana - Bari	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Bari - Padova	2:1 ✺
30.09.25	Virtus Entella - Bari	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Bari - Sampdoria	1:1 ✺
19.09.25	Palermo - Bari	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWTTL
- Mantova FC
Italian Serie B
18.10.25	Mantova - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Avellino - Mantova	0:0 ✺
30.09.25	Juve Stabia - Mantova	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Mantova - Frosinone	1:5 ✺
20.09.25	Mantova - Modena	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
22.02.25	Mantova - Bari	0:1
14.09.24	Bari - Mantova	2:0

Upcoming Matches