Match Info

Serie B - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia)

Referee: Calzavara A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Spezia		Cesena

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.05	3.5	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.5
	2.31	3.07	3.65
	1.50	3.97	6.54	Watch
	2.16	3.15	3.49	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.15)	3.27 ↑ (3.27)	4.14 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spezia
47.1%

Draw
29.6%

Cesena
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

28.6%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

28.4%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Cesena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cesena than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	30%	20%

Spezia - Cesena Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Spezia will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Cesena will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Spezia: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Spezia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sarr M. (G) 2. Wisniewski P. 55. Hristov P. (C) 37. Mateju A. 80. Kouda R. 8. Nagy A. 5. Esposito Sa. 29. Cassata F. 31. Aurelio G. 27. Soleri E. 10. Lapadula G.	33. Klinsmann J. (G) 15. Ciofi A. (C) 19. Zaro G. 24. Mangraviti M. 11. Ciervo R. 70. Francesconi M. 4. Castagnetti M. 14. Berti T. 99. Frabotta G. 7. Blesa J. 9. Shpendi C.
Substitutes
11. Beruatto P. 23. Candela A. 36. Candelari P. 15. Cistana A. 20. Di Serio G. 6. Fellipe Jack 77. Lorenzelli E. 16. Loria L. (G) 12. Mascardi D. (G) 26. Onofri M. 32. Vignali L. 99. Vlahovic V.	17. Adamo E. 16. Amoran P. 6. Arrigoni T. 29. Balde S. 43. Bertaccini F. 13. Celia R. 40. Ferretti L. (G) 39. Fontana N. (G) 18. Guidi M. 26. Piacentini M. 77. Tosku F.
Coaches
D'Angelo L.	Mignani M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
4', 1 - 0, Lapadula G. ⚽, Aurelio G. (A),
17', Francesconi M. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Frabotta G. ⚽, Ciofi A. (A),
45+1', 1 - 2, Frabotta G. ⚽, Castagnetti M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kouda R. ↓, Vignali L. ↑,
48', Castagnetti M. 🟨,
63', Cassata F. ↓, Candelari P. ↑,
63', Aurelio G. ↓, Beruatto P. ↑,
71', Soleri E. ↓, Vlahovic V. ↑,
73', Francesconi M. ↓, Adamo E. ↑,
77', Klinsmann J. 🟨,
79', Mangraviti M. 🟨,
83', Nagy A. ↓, Di Serio G. ↑,
83', Ciervo R. ↓, Guidi M. ↑,
83', Shpendi C. ↓, Balde S. ↑,
90+5', Esposito Sa. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 1.

Spezia has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cesena has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Spezia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Spezia: Bandinelli F. (Broken Leg)

There will not play in Cesena: Bastoni S. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Spezia: Zurkowski S. (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:14. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Spezia won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:5. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spezia Calcio
Italian Serie B
04.10.25	Spezia - Palermo	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Reggiana - Spezia	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Venezia - Spezia	2:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
24.09.25	Parma - Spezia	3:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie B
20.09.25	Spezia - Juve Stabia	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- AC Cesena
Italian Serie B
04.10.25	Cesena - Reggiana	1:2 ✺
30.09.25	Frosinone - Cesena	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Cesena - Palermo	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Venezia - Cesena	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	Sampdoria - Cesena	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
15.03.25	Cesena - Spezia	0:0
01.09.24	Spezia - Cesena	2:1
03.03.18	Spezia - Cesena	1:2
07.10.17	Cesena - Spezia	1:0
17.04.17	Cesena - Spezia	1:0
19.11.16	Spezia - Cesena	1:0
24.05.16	Cesena - Spezia	1:2

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