Match Info

Serie B - Round 6

Date: 30 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stadio Comunale (Chiavari)

Referee: Tremolada P. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Virtus Entella		Bari

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.18	3	3.45	Watch
	2.27	3.04	3.79
	2.33	2.76	3.60	Watch
	2.25	3.17	3.57	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.13)	3.05 ↓ (3.31)	3.54 ↑ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Virtus Entella
42.6%

Draw
30.9%

Bari
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

28.3%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

24.7%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Virtus Entella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Virtus Entella than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bari could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	53.3%	13.3%

Virtus Entella - Bari Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Virtus Entella will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Bari will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 53.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Virtus Entella (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Bari (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Bari (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Bari (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Bari (3.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Virtus Entella (votes: 2 - 20%). Bari (votes: 6 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Colombi S. (G) 15. Marconi I. 6. Tiritiello A. 23. Parodi L. (C) 94. Mezzoni F. 50. Benali A. 27. Dalla Vecchia M. 26. Di Mario S. 24. Franzoni A. 20. Fumagalli T. 19. Debenedetti A.	31. Cerofolini M. (G) 25. Pucino R. (C) 43. Nikolaou D. 3. Burgio R. 24. Dickmann L. 27. Braunoder M. 29. Verreth M. 8. Pagano R. 93. Dorval M. 21. Partipilo A. 11. Moncini G.
Substitutes
45. Ankeye D. 7. Bariti D. 77. Boccadamo A. 81. Bottaro A. 30. Carbone M. 22. Del Frate F. (G) 57. Del Lungo T. 8. Karic N. 5. Lipani J. 42. Moretti L. 4. Nichetti M. 80. Rinaldini R. (G)	16. Antonucci M. 10. Bellomo N. 4. Castrovilli G. 99. Cerri L. 5. Darboe E. 9. Gytkjaer C. 15. Kassama S. 18. Maggiore G. 13. Meroni A. 20. Pereiro G. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 17. Rao E.
Coaches
Chiappella A.	Caserta F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Verreth M. ⚽, Pagano R. (A),
41', Benali A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Partipilo A. ↓, Rao E. ↑,
46', Moncini G. ↓, Gytkjaer C. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Fumagalli T. ⚽,
51', Tiritiello A. 🟨,
55', 2 - 1, Tiritiello A. ⚽, Benali A. (A),
58', Chiappella A. 🟨,
65', Verreth M. ↓, Castrovilli G. ↑,
65', Braunoder M. ↓, Darboe E. ↑,
65', Marconi I. 🟨,
70', Castrovilli G. 🟨,
71', Fumagalli T. ↓, Bariti D. ↑,
71', Di Mario S. 🟨,
72', Dorval M. ↓, Cerri L. ↑,
76', Franzoni A. 🟨,
81', Benali A. ↓, Nichetti M. ↑,
81', Marconi I. ↓, Moretti L. ↑,
82', Bariti D. 🟨,
82', Chiappella A. 🟥,
87', 2 - 2, Gytkjaer C. ⚽,
90', Debenedetti A. ↓, Ankeye D. ↑,
90', Dalla Vecchia M. ↓, Karic N. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Virtus Entella won 3.

Virtus Entella has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bari's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Virtus Entella could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Virtus Entella: Siaulys O. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Bari: Vicari F. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Virtus Entella won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Virtus Entella won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Bari - the odds 3.38 are the expected chance of winning is 27.71%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Virtus Entella
Italian Serie B
27.09.25	Avellino - Virtus Entella	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Padova - Virtus Entella	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Virtus Entella - Mantova	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Cesena - Virtus Entella	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Virtus Entella - Juve Stabia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLWTT
- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
27.09.25	Bari - Sampdoria	1:1 ✺
19.09.25	Palermo - Bari	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Modena - Bari	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Bari - Monza	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Venezia - Bari	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
27.04.18	Bari - Virtus Entella	1:0
03.12.17	Virtus Entella - Bari	3:1
04.03.17	Virtus Entella - Bari	2:0
09.10.16	Bari - Virtus Entella	1:1
05.03.16	Virtus Entella - Bari	2:0
24.10.15	Bari - Virtus Entella	0:0
17.01.15	Bari - Virtus Entella	0:0

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