Match Info

Serie B - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio San Nicola (Bari)

Referee: Marchetti M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Bari		Sampdoria

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.75	3.3	Watch
	2.35	2.88	3.2
	2.56	2.88	3.5
	2.52	2.75	3.24	Watch
	2.49	2.91	3.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.28)	2.83 ↓ (3.24)	3.3 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bari
38.2%

Draw
33.2%

Sampdoria
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

29.4%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

27.2%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Sampdoria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sampdoria than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Bari - Sampdoria Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Bari will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 42.8% – 90.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Bari (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Cerofolini M. (G) 24. Dickmann L. 23. Vicari F. (C) 43. Nikolaou D. 13. Meroni A. 29. Verreth M. 18. Maggiore G. 93. Dorval M. 9. Gytkjaer C. 4. Castrovilli G. 11. Moncini G.	1. Ghidotti S. (G) 23. Depaoli F. (C) 5. Riccio A. 17. Hadzikadunic D. 31. Vulikic S. 44. Ioannou N. 80. Benedetti L. 28. Abildgaard O. 16. Henderson L. 20. Pafundi S. 7. Cuni M.
Substitutes
16. Antonucci M. 10. Bellomo N. 27. Braunoder M. 3. Burgio R. 5. Darboe E. 8. Pagano R. 21. Partipilo A. 20. Pereiro G. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 25. Pucino R. 17. Rao E. 7. Sibilli G.	72. Barak A. 14. Bellemo A. 9. Coda M. 33. Conti F. 3. Coubis A. 98. Coucke G. (G) 4. Ferri J. 21. Giordano S. 70. Narro V. 30. Ravaglia N. (G) 8. Ricci M. 18. Venuti L.
Coaches
Caserta F.	Donati M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', Cuni M. 🟨,
7', Henderson L. 🟨,
17', Vicari F. ↓, Pucino R. ↑,
19', Depaoli F. 🟨,
28', 0 - 1, Depaoli F. ⚽, Pafundi S. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Moncini G. ⚽, Dickmann L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Benedetti L. 🟨,
53', Dickmann L. 🟨,
66', Maggiore G. ↓, Darboe E. ↑,
66', Gytkjaer C. ↓, Sibilli G. ↑,
66', Benedetti L. ↓, Venuti L. ↑,
66', Henderson L. ↓, Bellemo A. ↑,
76', Meroni A. ↓, Burgio R. ↑,
80', Pafundi S. ↓, Coda M. ↑,
80', Depaoli F. ↓, Barak A. ↑,
81', Caserta F. 🟨,
87', Sibilli G. 🟨,

Preview

In recent games, both teams have suffered a series of defeats.

Sampdoria may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Bari has had a series of away games.

Bari might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Sampdoria: Altare G. (Knee Injury) Cherubini L. (Red Card) Ferrari A. (Thigh Injury) Girelli S. (Inactive) Malagrida L. (Ankle Injury) Pedrola E. (Injury) Romagnoli S. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bari won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bari won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
19.09.25	Palermo - Bari	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Modena - Bari	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Bari - Monza	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Venezia - Bari	2:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
17.08.25	Milan - Bari	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL
- Sampdoria
Italian Serie B
20.09.25	Monza - Sampdoria	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Sampdoria - Cesena	1:2 ✺
31.08.25	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Sampdoria	3:1 ✺
25.08.25	Sampdoria - Modena	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
18.08.25	Spezia - Sampdoria	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
02.03.25	Bari - Sampdoria	1:1
31.08.24	Sampdoria - Bari	0:0
16.03.24	Bari - Sampdoria	0:1
26.12.23	Sampdoria - Bari	1:1
28.04.12	Sampdoria - Bari	2:0

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