Match Info

League One - Round 9

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Oakwell (Barnsley) 🌤️ ...


	Barnsley		Milton Keynes Dons

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.55	2.75
	2.49	3.76	2.58
	2.47	3.65	2.6	Watch
	2.40	3.65	2.50
	2.43	3.62	2.58
	2.42	3.70	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.42)	3.66 ↓ (3.69)	2.59 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barnsley
38.4%

Draw
25.6%

Milton Keynes Dons
36%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.7%

25.3%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

25.1%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barnsley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

The chances for Milton Keynes Dons have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The ML Model estimate for Barnsley aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Barnsley - Milton Keynes Dons Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Postponed due to international match.

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 18th and 22nd in the Relegation - League Two).

Barnsley is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

MK Dons has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Barnsley may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Barnsley: Slicker C. (Inactive) Smith I. (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for MK Dons: Barnett R. (Injury) Wilson K. (Knee Injury).

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Barnsley has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:13 (averaging 2.6:2.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Barnsley against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 6:6 goals (averaging 3:3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	MK Dons	12	3	6	3	16:19	-3	15
23	Barnsley	11	2	2	7	11:21	-10	8

Outrights of English League One for now

Barnsley: 0.24%

Last Results with these Odds

Milton Keynes Dons - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 36.01%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barnsley FC
English EFL Trophy
22.09.26	Barnsley - Leeds United U21	3:4 ✺
English League One
19.09.26	Barnsley - Leicester City	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
15.09.26	Peterborough United - Barnsley	4:3 penalties ✺
English League One
12.09.26	Plymouth Argyle - Barnsley	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Barnsley - Stevenage Borough	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LTLLL
- Milton Keynes Dons
English EFL Trophy
22.09.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Crawley Town	4:1 ✺
English League One
17.09.26	AFC Wimbledon - Milton Keynes Dons	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Peterborough United	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Wycombe Wanderers - Milton Keynes Dons	3:3 ✺
02.09.26	Wigan Athletic - Milton Keynes Dons	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
29.04.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Barnsley	4:4
19.11.22	Barnsley - Milton Keynes Dons	3:1
24.01.15	Milton Keynes Dons - Barnsley	2:0
13.09.14	Barnsley - Milton Keynes Dons	3:5
English FA Cup
16.02.13	Milton Keynes Dons - Barnsley	1:3

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