Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday

Location: Claudio Fabian Tapia (Barracas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	HBO Max, TNT Sports
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Barracas Central		Atlético Tucumán

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.82	2.75	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.75
	2.88	2.78	2.78
	2.92	2.86	2.93
	2.87	2.86	2.82	Watch
	2.75	2.7	2.75
	2.83	2.79	2.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↑ (2.42)	2.82 ↓ (3.16)	2.79 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barracas Central
33.3%

Draw
33.2%

Atlético Tucumán
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

29.9%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

30.9%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barracas Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barracas Central's form might have worsened.

Atlético Tucumán has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barracas Central than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Tucumán than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.4%	21.7%	60.9%

Barracas Central - Atlético Tucumán Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Barracas Central will win (votes: 4 - 17.4%). Atlético Tucumán will win (votes: 14 - 60.9%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 21.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético Tucumán: 41% – 80.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Barracas Central (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Atlético Tucumán (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Barracas Central (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Barracas Central (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Atlético Tucumán (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Espinola J. (G) 2. Capraro N. 32. Tobio F. 31. Demartini N. 8. Porra T. 33. Maroni G. 5. Miloc D. 10. Tapia I. (C) 6. Insua R. 9. Morales G. 20. Candia J.	1. Ingolotti L. (G) 3. Villa M. 26. Ferreira Namandu C. D. 20. Suso G. 36. Vallejo L. 5. Dominguez J. 8. Ham E. 28. Compagnucci G. 11. Tesuri R. (C) 10. Franco N. 35. Abeldano G.
Substitutes
13. Barrios R. 11. Briasco N. 7. Bruera F. 37. Campi G. 18. Duarte M. 21. Gamba L. 16. Guaraz I. A. 38. Insua J. (G) 14. Jappert K. 4. Martinez D. 15. Rak Y. 24. Taborda E.	30. Brondo M. 9. Diaz L. 24. Di Placido L. 25. Durso T. (G) 6. Ferrari G. 21. Galvan I. 31. Godoy L. 23. Lamendola N. 7. Martin Benitez 45. Ortiz K. 18. Ruiz R. 27. Segovia A.
Coaches
Insua R.	Falcioni J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Maroni G. ⚽, Tapia I. (A),
18', Porra T. 🟨,
37', Dominguez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Maroni G. ↓, Martinez D. ↑,
46', Vallejo L. ↓, Galvan I. ↑,
46', Dominguez J. ↓, Godoy L. ↑,
46', Morales G. ↓, Bruera F. ↑,
56', Compagnucci G. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
56', Franco N. ↓, Segovia A. ↑,
63', Candia J. ↓, Duarte M. ↑,
63', Tapia I. ↓, Gamba L. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Demartini N. (Own goal),
71', 2 - 1, Gamba L. ⚽, Bruera F. (A),
73', Ham E. ↓, Ortiz K. ↑,
73', Miloc D. ↓, Guaraz I. A. ↑,
83', Godoy L. 🟨,
89', Godoy L. 🟨,
90+3', Ferreira Namandu C. D. 🟨,
90+4', Ortiz K. 🟨,
90+5', Ortiz K. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 13).

Barracas Central has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Atlético Tucumán's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atlético Tucumán may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Barracas Central has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Atlético Tucumán: Brandan M. (Calf Injury) Infante J. (Muscle Injury) Ruiz R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Barracas Central: Mino M. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barracas Central won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Barracas Central won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Tucumán - the odds 3.05 are the expected chance of winning is 31%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barracas Central
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.03.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Barracas Central	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Argentinos Juniors - Barracas Central	1:1 ✺
25.02.26	Barracas Central - Tigre	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Platense - Barracas Central	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Rosario Central - Barracas Central	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.8 WTWLL
- Atlético Tucumán
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.03.26	Atlético Tucumán - Aldosivi	1:1 ✺
03.03.26	Atlético Tucumán - Racing	0:3 ✺
24.02.26	Belgrano - Atlético Tucumán	3:1 ✺
20.02.26	Instituto Córdoba - Atlético Tucumán	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Atlético Tucumán - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.07.24	Barracas Central - Atlético Tucumán	0:2
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
11.02.24	Barracas Central - Atlético Tucumán	2:0
16.09.23	Atlético Tucumán - Barracas Central	1:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.03.23	Atlético Tucumán - Barracas Central	1:1
23.08.22	Atlético Tucumán - Barracas Central	4:0

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