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Current Win Probability
Barracas Central 21.4%
Draw 27.3%
Vélez Sársfield 51.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
28.7%
31.3%
40%
Our Initial ML Estimation
28.3%
30.9%
40.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Barracas Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barracas Central's form might have worsened.
Vélez Sársfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vélez Sársfield's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barracas Central than the current prediction. (+6.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barracas Central, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (-10.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vélez Sársfield, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
2.6%
6.5%
90.9%
Barracas Central - Vélez Sársfield Predictions
Users Predictions:
77 users predict this event. Barracas Central will win (votes: 2 - 2.6%). Vélez will win (votes: 70 - 90.9%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 6.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for Vélez: 84.5% – 97.3%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
30. Mino M. (G) 2. Capraro N. 14. Goni G. 6. Insua R. 33. Mater F. 10. Tapia I. (C) 8. Rosane S. 5. Herrera R. 27. Iacobellis M. 48. Aguirre F. 43. Zalazar M.
12. Rodriguez R. (G) 4. Garcia J. 2. Mammana E. 6. Quiros A. 3. Gomez E. 32. Ordonez C. 26. Bouzat A. (C) 20. Pizzini F. 22. Aquino C. 27. Fernandez T. 9. Braian Romero
Substitutes
20. Candia J. 11. Cantero A. 32. Coronel S. 15. Demartini N. 24. Duarte M. 23. Faggioli L. 1. Ferrario R. (G) 29. Juarez D. 28. Miloc D. 58. Pavia D. 79. Puig M. 22. Villalba S.
28. Carrizo M. 35. Caseres S. 37. Cavanagh T. 5. Elias J. 42. Garzon L. (G) 24. Guidara T. 36. Montoro A. 11. Pellegrini M. 23. Pernicone P. 17. Pineiro R. 19. Roldan L. 7. Santos M.
Coaches
Orfila A.
Quinteros G.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Braian Romero ⚽, Pizzini F. (A),
30', Zalazar M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Aguirre F. ↓, Candia J. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Pizzini F. ⚽, Fernandez T. (A),
54', Herrera R. ↓, Duarte M. ↑,
54', Zalazar M. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
62', Iacobellis M. ↓, Juarez D. ↑,
67', 0 - 3, Aquino C. (Pen),
68', Braian Romero ↓, Santos M. ↑,
69', Aquino C. ↓, Elias J. ↑,
74', 0 - 4, Santos M. ⚽, Fernandez T. (A),
76', Rosane S. ↓, Miloc D. ↑,
77', Ordonez C. ↓, Roldan L. ↑,
77', Pizzini F. ↓, Carrizo M. ↑,
78', 0 - 5, Fernandez T. ⚽,
84', Fernandez T. ↓, Pineiro R. ↑,
Preview
An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 26 and 5).
Barracas Central is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Vélez in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Vélez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Vélez is a favorite.
There will not play in Vélez: Gordillo Y.
(Injury)
Lagos A.
(Injury)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Barracas Central won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.
Including matches at home between the teams Barracas Central won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.