Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 27 August 2024, Tuesday

Location: Holker Street (Barrow in Furness)

Referee: Stockbridge S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Connect
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Elisa Viihde, Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Barrow		Derby County

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.7	1.73	Watch
	4.4	3.8	1.75
	4.75	4	1.75	Watch
	4.71	3.86	1.75
	4.47	3.7	1.75	Watch
	4.8	3.9	1.67
	4.49	3.95	1.75	Watch
	4.75	4	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.64 ↓ (5.3)	3.86 ↓ (4.15)	1.74 ↑ (1.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barrow
20.5%

Draw
24.7%

Derby County
54.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.7%

22.6%

59.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.9%

23.7%

62.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barrow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barrow than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Barrow - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Barrow will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Derby will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Farman P. (G) 2. Eccleston N. 42. Vassell T. 6. Canavan N. (C) 30. Jackson B. 4. Campbell D. 16. Foley S. 11. Newby E. 19. Telford D. 17. Kouyate K. 10. Garner G.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 23. Ward J. 35. Nelson C. 5. Bradley S. (C) 3. Forsyth C. 32. Adams E. 17. Goudmijn K. 28. Chirewa T. 16. Thompson L. 7. Barkhuizen T. 9. Collins J.
Substitutes
20. Acquah E. 9. Dallas A. 37. Etaluku S. 15. Gotts R. 8. Spence K. 21. Stanway W. (G) 29. Tiensia J. 7. Worrall D.	39. Brown D. 20. Elder C. 19. Jackson K. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 24. Nyambe R. 4. Ozoh D. 31. Vickers J. (G) 14. Washington C. 10. Yates J.
Coaches
Clemence S.	Warne P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Chirewa T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Barkhuizen T. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
46', Goudmijn K. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
46', Chirewa T. ↓, Mendez-Laing N. ↑,
61', Thompson L. ↓, Brown D. ↑,
66', Garner G. ↓, Acquah E. ↑,
66', Telford D. ↓, Spence K. ↑,
70', Mendez-Laing N. 🟨,
72', Ward J. ↓, Nyambe R. ↑,
78', Campbell D. ↓, Gotts R. ↑,
86', Foley S. ↓, Dallas A. ↑,
86', Kouyate K. ↓, Worrall D. ↑,
Penalties (3 - 2)
1, Collins J. (Pen),
1, Jackson B. (Pen),
2, Mendez-Laing N. (Pen),
2, Gotts R. (Pen),
3, Brown D. (Pen),
3, Worrall D. (Pen),
4, Jackson K. (Pen),
4, Spence K. (Pen),
5, Forsyth C. (Pen),

Preview

Barrow is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Derby is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Barrow have a series of home games.

In this match Derby is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Barrow won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barrow
English League Two
24.08.24	Barrow - Port Vale	4:0 ✺
17.08.24	Carlisle United - Barrow	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
13.08.24	Barrow - Port Vale	3:2 ✺
English League Two
10.08.24	Barrow - Crewe Alexandra	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Barrow - Wigan Athletic	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WLWWW
- Derby County
English League Championship
24.08.24	Watford - Derby County	2:1 ✺
17.08.24	Derby County - Middlesbrough	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
13.08.24	Derby County - Chesterfield	2:1 ✺
English League Championship
09.08.24	Blackburn Rovers - Derby County	4:2 ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Derby County - Valladolid	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
05.09.20	Derby County - Barrow	1:0 penalties

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