Match Info

Championship - Round 25

Date: 1 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Pride Park (Derby)

Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Derby County		Middlesbrough

	1	X	2
	3.05	3.25	2.25	Watch
	3.07	3.36	2.33	Watch
	3.07	3.35	2.34	Watch
	2.9	3.1	2.38
	3.07	3.18	2.34	Watch
	3	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↑ (2.94)	3.25 ↓ (3.3)	2.35 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County
31%

Draw
28.9%

Middlesbrough
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

28.6%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

29.7%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16%	36%	48%

Derby County - Middlesbrough Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 4 - 16%). Middlesbrough will win (votes: 12 - 48%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 36%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Middlesbrough: 28.4% – 67.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Derby (votes: 2 - 50%). Middlesbrough (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 6. Langas S. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 23. Ward J. 16. Thompson L. 32. Adams E. (C) 20. Elder C. 42. Clark B. 10. Brewster R. 7. Agyemang P.	31. Brynn S. (G) 2. Brittain C. 12. Ayling L. 3. Targett M. 24. Bangura A. 18. Morris A. 10. Burgzorg D. 11. Whittaker M. 7. Hackney H. (C) 20. Sene M. K. 9. Conway T.
Substitutes
4. Batth D. 11. Blackett-Taylor C. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 3. Forsyth C. 19. Jackson K. 12. O'Donnell R. (G) 15. Salvesen L. 27. Travis L. 14. Weimann A.	47. Baptiste A. 16. Browne A. 14. Gilbert A. 17. Hamilton M. 27. Hansen S. 42. Kante A. 33. McLaughlin J. (G) 19. Nypan S. 22. Silvera S.
Coaches
Eustace J.	Hellberg K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sene M. K. ↓, Gilbert A. ↑,
59', Elder C. 🟨,
59', Agyemang P. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
59', Brewster R. ↓, Brereton Diaz B. ↑,
70', 1 - 0, Clark B. ⚽, Salvesen L. (A),
73', Salvesen L. 🟨,
76', Brittain C. ↓, Silvera S. ↑,
77', Morris A. ↓, Nypan S. ↑,
78', Clark B. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
84', Gilbert A. 🟨,
87', Bangura A. ↓, Browne A. ↑,
88', Conway T. ↓, Hamilton M. ↑,
90+4', Targett M. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Derby: Beck O. (Hamstring Injury) Morris C. (Ankle Injury) Ozoh D. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury) McGree R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Derby: Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Edmundson G. (Injury) Jones A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Derby won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:26. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Middlesbrough: 13.46% Derby: 0.67%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	16:12	4	15
22	Derby	8	1	2	5	7:14	-7	5

Last Results with these Odds

Middlesbrough - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 39.22%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County
English League Championship
29.12.25	Leicester City - Derby County	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	Birmingham City - Derby County	1:1 ✺
20.12.25	Derby County - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
15.12.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Derby County	0:3 ✺
10.12.25	Derby County - Millwall	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTTWT
- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
29.12.25	Middlesbrough - Hull City	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Middlesbrough - Blackburn Rovers	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Bristol City - Middlesbrough	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Middlesbrough - Queens Park Rangers	3:1 ✺
09.12.25	Charlton Athletic - Middlesbrough	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
29.11.25	Middlesbrough - Derby County	2:1
01.03.25	Middlesbrough - Derby County	1:0
17.08.24	Derby County - Middlesbrough	1:0
12.02.22	Middlesbrough - Derby County	4:1
21.08.21	Derby County - Middlesbrough	0:0
13.02.21	Derby County - Middlesbrough	2:1
25.11.20	Middlesbrough - Derby County	3:0

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