Match Info

Championship - Round 15

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Ewood Park (Blackburn)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Blackburn Rovers		Derby County

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.4	3.5	Watch
	2.08	3.45	3.55	Watch
	2.13	3.41	3.69
	1.96	3.46	3.85	Watch
	2.06	3.32	3.56	Watch
	1.92	3.45	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.96)	3.42 ↑ (3.3)	3.67 ↓ (3.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Blackburn Rovers
46.6%

Draw
27.7%

Derby County
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

28.2%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

29.4%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Blackburn Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Blackburn Rovers than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	9.1%	36.4%

Blackburn Rovers - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Blackburn will win (votes: 12 - 54.5%). Derby will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Blackburn: 33.7% – 75.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Derby County will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pears A. (G) 12. Miller L. 15. McLoughlin S. (C) 19. Hedges R. 2. Alebiosu R. 18. Henriksson A. 5. Gardner-Hickman T. 14. De Neve D. 25. Morishita R. 23. Ohashi Y. 11. Gudjohnsen A.	1. Widell Zetterstrom J. (G) 6. Langas S. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 23. Ward J. 42. Clark B. 18. Ozoh D. 20. Elder C. 25. Brereton Diaz B. 7. Agyemang P. 9. Morris C. (C)
Substitutes
17. Carter H. 28. Forshaw A. 9. Gueye M. 35. Michalski N. (G) 31. Montgomery K. 3. Pickering H. 43. Pratt G. 4. Ribeiro Y. 8. Tavares S.	32. Adams E. 4. Batth D. 11. Blackett-Taylor C. 10. Brewster R. 3. Forsyth C. 19. Jackson K. 15. Salvesen L. 31. Vickers J. (G) 14. Weimann A.
Coaches
Ismael V.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
10', Ozoh D. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
14', Gardner-Hickman T. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Morris C. ⚽, Elder C. (A),
45', 0 - 2, Agyemang P. ⚽, Ward J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gardner-Hickman T. ↓, Montgomery K. ↑,
66', 1 - 2, Ohashi Y. (Pen),
69', Clark B. 🟨,
71', Agyemang P. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
72', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
79', Morishita R. ↓, Gueye M. ↑,
79', Henriksson A. ↓, Forshaw A. ↑,
87', Adams E. 🟨,
90+1', Morris C. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
90+1', Ward J. ↓, Batth D. ↑,
90+3', Salvesen L. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 18 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Blackburn won 4.

In recent matches, Blackburn has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Derby is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Blackburn is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Blackburn: Baradji M. (Foot Injury) Cantwell T. (Knee Injury) Carter H. (Hamstring Injury) Garrett J. (Surgery) Kargbo A. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Beck O. (Lacking Match Fitness) Johnston M. (Inactive) Nelson C. (Inactive) Thompson L. (Inactive) Travis L. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Blackburn: Toth B. (Injury) Wharton S. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Blackburn won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:19. (average 1.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Blackburn won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:8. (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Blackburn Rovers
English League Championship
04.11.25	Bristol City - Blackburn Rovers	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	Leicester City - Blackburn Rovers	0:2 ✺
25.10.25	Blackburn Rovers - Southampton	2:1 ✺
21.10.25	Blackburn Rovers - Sheffield United	1:3 ✺
18.10.25	Coventry City - Blackburn Rovers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.2 WWWLL
- Derby County
English League Championship
04.11.25	Derby County - Hull City	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Sheffield United - Derby County	1:3 ✺
25.10.25	Derby County - Queens Park Rangers	1:0 ✺
21.10.25	Derby County - Norwich City	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Oxford United - Derby County	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
08.03.25	Derby County - Blackburn Rovers	2:1
09.08.24	Blackburn Rovers - Derby County	4:2
15.03.22	Blackburn Rovers - Derby County	3:1
30.10.21	Derby County - Blackburn Rovers	1:2
16.04.21	Blackburn Rovers - Derby County	2:1
26.09.20	Derby County - Blackburn Rovers	0:4
08.03.20	Derby County - Blackburn Rovers	3:0

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