Match Info

Championship - Round 33

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Vicarage Road (Watford)

Referee: Webb D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Watford		Derby County

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.4	3.6	Watch
	2.2	3.3	3.3
	2.03	3.56	3.56	Watch
	2.25	3.4	3.48
	2.02	3.5	3.69	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.4
	2.17	3.5	3.52	Watch
	2.22	3.33	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.95)	3.41 ↓ (3.51)	3.49 ↓ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Watford
44.8%

Draw
27.9%

Derby County
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

26.9%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

28.4%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Derby County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Watford, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	19%	47.6%

Watford - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Watford will win (votes: 7 - 33.3%). Derby will win (votes: 10 - 47.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Derby: 26.2% – 69%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Watford (votes: 2 - 40%). Derby (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Selvik E. (G) 2. Ngakia J. 25. Abankwah J. 3. Goglichidze S. 21. Mfuni S. 66. Irankunda N. 23. Mendy N. 10. Louza I. (C) 39. Kayembe E. 42. Maamma O. 9. Kjerrumgaard L.	31. Vickers J. (G) 23. Ward J. 28. Sanderson D. 5. Clarke M. 20. Elder C. 18. Ozoh D. 27. Travis L. (C) 25. Brereton Diaz B. 19. Szmodics S. 10. Brewster R. 7. Agyemang P.
Substitutes
34. Baah K. 12. Baxter N. (G) 16. Bola M. 15. Bove E. 8. Chakvetadze G. 20. Doumbia M. 17. Ekwah P. 7. Ince T. 6. Pollock M.	54. Allen C. 42. Clark B. 37. Eames O. 3. Forsyth C. 29. Fraulo O. 44. Gordon I. 9. Morris C. 2. Murkin D. 12. O'Donnell R. (G)
Coaches
Still E.	Eustace J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Kjerrumgaard L. ⚽,
23', Clarke M. 🟨,
23', Maamma O. ↓, Chakvetadze G. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Chakvetadze G. 🟨,
55', Elder C. 🟨,
62', Ozoh D. ↓, Clark B. ↑,
62', Brewster R. ↓, Morris C. ↑,
62', Elder C. ↓, Murkin D. ↑,
68', Irankunda N. ↓, Baah K. ↑,
68', Kjerrumgaard L. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
78', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Fraulo O. ↑,
83', Doumbia M. 🟨,
85', Baah K. ↓, Bola M. ↑,
86', Goglichidze S. ↓, Pollock M. ↑,
90', 2 - 0, Doumbia M. ⚽, Bola M. (A),
90+2', Travis L. ↓, Allen C. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Watford won 5.

Recent form of Watford has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Derby is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Watford has had a series of away games.

Watford will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Watford: Ekwah P. (Injury) Kyprianou H. (Ankle Injury) Vata R. (Hamstring Injury)

There will not play in Derby: Johnston M. (Hamstring Injury) Langas S. (Hamstring Injury) Widell Zetterstrom J. (Illness)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Watford won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:22. (average 1.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Watford won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.8:1.6).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Watford: 0.7% Derby: 0.66%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7:14	-7	8
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	8:15	-7	6

Last Results with these Odds

Watford - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 48.46%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Derby County - the odds 3.84 are the expected chance of winning is 24.61%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Watford FC
English League Championship
14.02.26	Preston North End - Watford	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Southampton - Watford	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Hull City - Watford	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Watford - Swansea City	0:2 ✺
24.01.26	Blackburn Rovers - Watford	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TLTLT
- Derby County
English League Championship
14.02.26	Derby County - Swansea City	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Derby County - Ipswich Town	1:2 ✺
30.01.26	Bristol City - Derby County	0:5 ✺
23.01.26	Derby County - West Bromwich Albion	1:1 ✺
20.01.26	Charlton Athletic - Derby County	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
22.11.25	Derby County - Watford	2:3
18.01.25	Derby County - Watford	0:2
24.08.24	Watford - Derby County	2:1
19.02.21	Watford - Derby County	2:1
16.10.20	Derby County - Watford	0:1
03.04.15	Derby County - Watford	2:2
22.11.14	Watford - Derby County	1:2

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