Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 11

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Jenner Park (Barry)

Referee: Jones J. A. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Wales	Cymru Football TV


	Barry Town United		Gap Connahs Quay

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.30	1.80
	3.35	3.25	1.92
	4.32	3.49	1.87
	3.64	3.4	2.02	Watch
	4.25	3.40	1.82
	3.84	3.44	1.80
	3.75	3.35	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.84 ↑ (2.85)	3.38 ↑ (3.28)	1.87 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barry Town United
23.8%

Draw
27.1%

Gap Connahs Quay
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

27.7%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

27.1%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barry Town United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barry Town United's form might have worsened.

Gap Connahs Quay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gap Connahs Quay's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barry Town United than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barry Town United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gap Connahs Quay, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Barry Town United - Gap Connahs Quay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ratcliffe G. (G) 8. Barton D. 19. Bernard J. 9. Crosbie J. 17. Cuddihy O. 7. Daley N. 2. George M. 24. Richards W. 4. Sainty C. 21. Shaw J. 3. Williams E.	1. Renshaw C. (G) 6. Cowan D. 16. Deane F. 22. Ferguson J. 3. Flynn S. 12. Franklin H. 9. Hodkin J. 5. Hughes A. 10. Murray I. 8. West C. 18. Woodcock M.
Substitutes
41. Grinter J. 16. Lester J. 45. Njie A. 11. Schwank R. 1. Thomas J. (G)	82. Cropper O. 17. McCoy A. 99. Mehasseb H. 34. Partridge C. 27. Redshaw F. 7. Stephenson D. 21. Watson R.
Coaches
Legg A.	Disney J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
10', Richards W. 🟨,
19', 0 - 1, Hodkin J. ⚽,
30', 0 - 2, Franklin H. ⚽,
37', 0 - 3, Franklin H. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
63', 0 - 4, Hodkin J. ⚽,
68', 1 - 4, Lester J. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barry Town won 2.

In recent outings, Barry Town has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Connahs Quay shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Barry Town could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Connahs Quay is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Barry Town has recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:34 (averaging 0.9:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Barry Town against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 8:12 goals (averaging 0.8:1.2 per game).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Connahs Q.: 3.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Barry	12	8	1	3	27:20	7	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barry Town United
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.09.26	Colwyn Bay - Barry Town United	5:2 ✺
15.09.26	Barry Town United - Ammanford	2:2 ✺
11.09.26	Barry Town United - Llandudno	4:1 ✺
05.09.26	The New Saints - Barry Town United	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Barry Town United	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTWLW
- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh Cymru Premier
18.09.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:0 ✺
15.09.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Airbus UK Broughton	3:0 ✺
12.09.26	Colwyn Bay - Gap Connahs Quay	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Haverfordwest County	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Flint Town United - Gap Connahs Quay	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
29.03.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Barry Town United	1:1
21.02.26	Barry Town United - Gap Connahs Quay	1:0
03.01.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Barry Town United	3:1
27.09.25	Barry Town United - Gap Connahs Quay	0:0
13.04.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Barry Town United	0:2
22.02.25	Barry Town United - Gap Connahs Quay	0:2
09.11.24	Barry Town United - Gap Connahs Quay	3:2

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