Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 8

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Llanelian Road (Old Colwyn)

Referee: Owen T. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, S4C
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Wales	Cymru Football TV


	Colwyn Bay		Gap Connahs Quay

	1	X	2
	3.10	3.10	2.05
	2.95	3.00	2.23
	3.04	3.43	2.25
	3.25	3.45	2.14	Watch
	3.00	3.35	2.20
	3.01	3.26	2.17
	3.25	3.20	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.85)	3.26 ↑ (3.08)	2.16 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colwyn Bay
29.6%

Draw
28.1%

Gap Connahs Quay
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

29.6%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

29.3%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colwyn Bay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Gap Connahs Quay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colwyn Bay than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Colwyn Bay - Gap Connahs Quay Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Connahs Quay will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Halstead M. (G) 8. Bratley C. 11. Davies J. 6. Forde S. 18. Moore A. 4. Peate N. 22. Poole D. 17. Roberts E. 10. Robles L. 5. Sirrell L. 16. Williams J.	1. Renshaw C. (G) 6. Cowan D. 22. Ferguson J. 9. Hodkin J. 5. Hughes A. 4. Jones J. 10. Murray I. 23. Sharif A. 7. Stephenson D. 8. West C. 18. Woodcock M.
Substitutes
31. Bubb C. (G) 3. Hart S. 19. Hill M. 25. Hoban B. 7. Kenny J. 13. Osment S. (G) 2. Roberts D.	12. Franklin H. 68. Liepa D. (G) 17. McCoy A. 99. Mehasseb H. 34. Partridge C. 27. Redshaw F. 20. Watson R.
Coaches
Wilde M.	Disney J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, West C. (Penalty Awarded),
35', Hughes A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Moore A. ↓, Roberts D. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Davies J. ⚽,
56', Forde S. 🟨,
59', Stephenson D. ↓, Franklin H. ↑,
59', Hodkin J. ↓, Mehasseb H. ↑,
63', Robles L. ↓, Kenny J. ↑,
66', 2 - 1, Forde S. ⚽,
73', Bratley C. 🟨,
73', Sharif A. 🟨,
73', Roberts D. 🟨,
77', Hughes A. ↓, McCoy A. ↑,
78', Woodcock M. ↓, Redshaw F. ↑,
78', Cowan D. ↓, Watson R. ↑,
80', Davies J. 🟨,
90', Davies J. ↓, Hill M. ↑,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Colwyn Bay won 0.

In recent matches, Colwyn Bay has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Connahs Quay is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Colwyn Bay may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Connahs Quay is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Colwyn Bay won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:22. (average 1.4:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Colwyn Bay won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 2:3.3).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Connahs Q.: 3.14% Colwyn Bay: 1.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Colwyn Bay	12	7	1	4	21:15	6	22

Last Results with these Odds

Colwyn Bay - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 31.93%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colwyn Bay
Welsh Cymru Premier
05.09.26	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	1:0 ✺
31.08.26	Colwyn Bay - Llandudno	2:0 ✺
28.08.26	The New Saints - Colwyn Bay	5:1 ✺
21.08.26	Colwyn Bay - Airbus UK Broughton	1:0 ✺
15.08.26	Caernarfon Town - Colwyn Bay	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLWL
- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh Cymru Premier
04.09.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Haverfordwest County	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Flint Town United - Gap Connahs Quay	1:2 ✺
28.08.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Cambrian United	3:0 ✺
22.08.26	Ammanford - Gap Connahs Quay	0:2 ✺
14.08.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Trefelin	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
18.04.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Colwyn Bay	1:1
24.01.26	Colwyn Bay - Gap Connahs Quay	2:2
05.12.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Colwyn Bay	2:1
10.08.25	Colwyn Bay - Gap Connahs Quay	1:1
29.11.23	Colwyn Bay - Gap Connahs Quay	2:3
26.09.23	Gap Connahs Quay - Colwyn Bay	2:1
Welsh FA Cup
12.11.22	Gap Connahs Quay - Colwyn Bay	4:0

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